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Bubbles, Food Prices, and Speculation: Evidence from the CFTC's Daily Large Trader Data Files
Aulerich, Nicole M.; Irwin, Scott H.; Garcia, Philip - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
The "Masters Hypothesis" is the claim that unprecedented buying pressure from new financial index investors created a massive bubble in agricultural futures prices at various times in recent years. This paper analyzes the market impact of financial index investment in agricultural futures...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969324
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Commodity and Asset Pricing Models: An Integration
Cortazar, Gonzalo; Kovacevic, Ivo; Schwartz, Eduardo S. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
We present a simple methodology that integrates commodity and asset pricing models. Given current evidence on the financialization of commodity markets, valuable information about commodity risk premiums can be extracted from asset pricing models and used to substantially improve the estimates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950668
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Risk, Ambiguity, and the Exercise of Employee Stock Options
Izhakian, Yehuda; Yermack, David - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014
traditional measure of risk, equity volatility. We show that each variable has a statistically significant effect on the timing of … option exercises, with volatility causing executives to hold their options longer in order to preserve remaining option value … for the volatility and ambiguity variables imply similar magnitudes of economic impact upon the exercise decision, with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950897
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Embedded Leverage
Frazzini, Andrea; Pedersen, Lasse Heje - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012
Many financial instruments are designed with embedded leverage such as options and leveraged exchange traded funds (ETFs). Embedded leverage alleviates investors' leverage constraints and, therefore, we hypothesize that embedded leverage lowers required returns. Consistent with this hypothesis,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951107
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The Joint Cross Section of Stocks and Options
Ang, Andrew; An, Byeong-Je; Bali, Turan G.; Cakici, Nusret - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
volatility over the next month, but with decreasing realized volatility. These predictability patterns are consistent with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951430
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Parametric Inference and Dynamic State Recovery from Option Panels
Andersen, Torben G.; Fusari, Nicola; Todorov, Viktor - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012
the spot volatility extracted from the options and the one obtained nonparametrically from high-frequency data on the … underlying asset. We further construct new formal tests of the model fit for specific regions of the volatility surface and for … index options we extend the popular double-jump stochastic volatility model to allow for time-varying jump risk premia and a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011271459
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The Supply and Demand of S&P 500 Put Options
Constantinides, George M.; Lian, Lei - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2015
We document that the implied volatility skew of S&P 500 index puts is non-decreasing in the disaster index and risk …-the-money puts, thereby steepening the implied volatility skew and resolving the puzzle. Consistent with the data, the model also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011276422
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Global Asset Pricing
Lewis, Karen K. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011
Financial markets have become increasingly global in recent decades, yet the pricing of internationally traded assets continues to depend strongly upon local risk factors, leading to several observations that are difficult to explain with standard frameworks. Equity returns depend upon both...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009228888
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On the Relative Pricing of long Maturity S&P 500 Index Options and CDX Tranches
Collin-Dufresne, Pierre; Goldstein, Robert S.; Yang, Fan - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2010
We investigate a structural model of market and firm-level dynamics in order to jointly price long-dated S&P 500 options and tranche spreads on the five-year CDX index. We demonstrate the importance of calibrating the model to match the entire term structure of CDX index spreads because it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008601669
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Tail Risk and Asset Prices
Kelly, Bryan; Jiang, Hao - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
We propose a new measure of time-varying tail risk that is directly estimable from the cross section of returns. We exploit firm-level price crashes every month to identify common fluctuations in tail risk across stocks. Our tail measure is significantly correlated with tail risk measures...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010692234