Showing 1 - 10 of 17
We develop a rational expectations framework to study the consequences of alternative means to resolve the "unfunded liabilities'' problem---unsustainable exponential growth in federal Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid spending with no plan to finance it. Resolution requires specifying a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008601671
We use a rational expectations framework to assess the implications of rising debt in an environment with a "fiscal limit." The fiscal limit is defined as the point where the government no longer has the ability to finance higher debt levels by increasing taxes, so either an adjustment to fiscal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008685006
News--or foresight--about future economic fundamentals can create rational expectations equilibria with non-fundamental representations that pose substantial challenges to econometric efforts to recover the structural shocks to which economic agents react. Using tax policies as a leading example...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009652882
The Great Recession and worldwide financial crisis have exploded fiscal imbalances and brought fiscal policy and inflation to the forefront of policy concerns. Those concerns will only grow as aging populations increase demands on government expenditures in coming decades. It is widely perceived...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009654186
Bayesian prior predictive analysis of five nested DSGE models suggests that model specifications and prior distributions tightly circumscribe the range of possible government spending multipliers. Multipliers are decomposed into wealth and substitution effects, yielding uniform comparisons...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009323438
This paper contributes to the debate about fiscal multipliers by studying the impacts of government investment in conventional neoclassical growth models. The analysis focuses on two dimensions of fiscal policy that are critical for understanding the effects of government investment:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005040613
Fiscal foresight -- the phenomenon that legislative and implementation lags ensure that private agents receive clear signals about the tax rates they face in the future -- is intrinsic to the tax policy process. This paper develops an analytical framework to study the econometric implications of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005830136
Fiscal foresight---the phenomenon that legislative and implementation lags ensure that private agents receive clear signals about the tax rates they face in the future---is intrinsic to the tax policy process. This paper develops an analytical framework to study the econometric implications of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005575595
Changes in fiscal policy typically entail two kinds of lags: the legislative lag--between when legislation is proposed and when it is signed into law--and the implementation lag--from when a new fiscal law is enacted and when it takes effect. These lags imply that substantial time evolves...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008646465
Aging populations in advanced economies are placing ever-increasing demands on government spending in the form of old-age benefits. Economies that have promised substantially more benefits than they have made provision to finance are heading into a prolonged era of fiscal stress. Unresolved...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008855520