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Bond Market Clienteles, the Yield Curve, and the Optimal Maturity Structure of Government Debt

Vayanos, Dimitri; Guibaud, Stéphane; Nosbusch, Yves - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013

We propose a clientele-based model of the yield curve and optimal maturity structure of government debt. Clienteles are generations of agents at different lifecycle stages in an overlapping-generations economy. An optimal maturity structure exists in the absence of distortionary taxes and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969262

Inflation and the Stock Market:Understanding the "Fed Model"

Bekaert, Geert; Engstrom, Eric - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2009

to the fact that both bond and equity yields commove strongly and positively with expected inflation. While inflation … commoves with nominal bond yields for well-known reasons, the positive correlation between expected inflation and equity yields … has long puzzled economists. We show that the effect is consistent with modern asset pricing theory incorporating …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005025656

Disability and Social Security Reforms: The French Case

Behaghel, Luc; Roger, Muriel; Blanchet, Didier; … - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011

The French pattern of early transitions out of employment is basically explained by the low age at "normal" retirement and by the importance of transitions through unemployment insurance and early-retirement schemes before access to normal retirement. These routes have exempted French workers...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009018254

Was This Time Different? Fiscal Policy in Commodity Republics

Cespedes, Luis Felipe; Velasco, Andrés - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013

We revisit the issue of fiscal procyclicality in commodity-rich nations -commodity republics in the nomenclature of this paper. Since commodity prices are plausibly a main driver of fiscal policy outcomes in these countries, we focus on the behavior of fiscal variables across the commodity...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969315

Fiscal Policy in Debt Constrained Economies

Aguiar, Mark; Amador, Manuel - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011

We study optimal fiscal policy in a small open economy (SOE) with sovereign and private default risk. The SOE's government uses linear taxation to fund exogenous expenditures and uses public debt to inter-temporally allocate tax distortions. We characterize a class of environments in which the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009323435

Debt Overhangs: Past and Present

Reinhart, Carmen; Rogoff, Kenneth S; Reinhart, Vincent R. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012

We identify the major public debt overhang episodes in the advanced economies since the early 1800s, characterized by public debt to GDP levels exceeding 90% for at least five years. Consistent with Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) and other more recent research, we find that public debt overhang...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011227915

Hiccups for HIPCs?

Burnside, Craig; Fanizza, Domenico - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2004

increase in social spending there could be a short-run increase in inflation in HIPC countries and (iii) the keys to long …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005710347

Seesaws and Social Security Benefits Indexing

Weinzierl, Matthew C - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014

The price indexation of Social Security benefit payments has emerged in recent years as a flashpoint of debate in the United States. I characterize the direct effects that changes in that price index would have on retirees who differ in their initial wealth at retirement and mortality rates...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010960435

Bank sovereign bond holdings, sovereign shock spillovers, and moral hazard during the European crisis

Beltratti, Andrea; Stulz, René M. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2015

From 2010 to 2012, the relation between bank stock returns from European Union (EU) countries and the returns on sovereign CDS of peripheral (GIIPS) countries is negative. We use days with tail sovereign CDS returns of peripheral countries to identify the effects of shocks to the cost of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011276429

The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment

Hamilton, James; Wu, Jing Cynthia - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011

This paper reviews alternative options for monetary policy when the short-term interest rate is at the zero lower bound and develops new empirical estimates of the effects of the maturity structure of publicly held debt on the term structure of interest rates. We use a model of risk-averse...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009652851

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