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Why Has Japan's Massive Government Debt Not Wreaked Havoc (Yet)?
Horioka, Charles Yuji; Hagiwara, Akiko Terada-; Nomoto, … - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
In this paper, we present data on trends over time in government debt financing in Japan since 2010 with emphasis on the importance of foreign holders and speculate about the determinants of those trends. We find that Japanese government securities were held primarily by domestic holders until...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951434
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Excessive Volatility in Capital Flows: A Pigouvian Taxation Approach
Jeanne, Olivier; Korinek, Anton - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2010
This paper analyzes prudential controls on capital flows to emerging markets from the perspective of a Pigouvian tax that addresses externalities associated with the deleveraging cycle. It presents a model in which restricting capital inflows during boom times reduces the potential outflows...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008625925
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Global Savings and Global Investment: The Transmission of Identified Fiscal Shocks
Feyrer, James; Shambaugh, Jay C. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2009
This paper examines the effect of exogenous shocks to savings on world capital markets. Using the exogenous shocks to … accounting identities of the US and the rest of the world. We find that exogenous tax increases are only partially offset by … deficits and increases in investment in other countries in the world. We cannot reject that the shock is uniformly transmitted …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005036810
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Was This Time Different? Fiscal Policy in Commodity Republics
Cespedes, Luis Felipe; Velasco, Andrés - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
We revisit the issue of fiscal procyclicality in commodity-rich nations -commodity republics in the nomenclature of this paper. Since commodity prices are plausibly a main driver of fiscal policy outcomes in these countries, we focus on the behavior of fiscal variables across the commodity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969315
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Distributional Incentives in an Equilibrium Model of Domestic Sovereign Default
Mendoza, Enrique G.; D'Erasmo, Pablo - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
The European debt crisis shares features of the historical episodes of outright default on domestic public debt identified by Reinhart and Rogoff (2008) as a forgotten research subject. This paper proposes a theory of domestic sovereign default in which a government chooses debt and default...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969420
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Sovereign Debt in Latin America, 1820-1913
Taylor, Alan M.; Paolera, Gerardo della - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012
This paper examines sovereign lending to Latin America and the Caribbean from 1820 to 1913. We examine four waves of capital flows where defaults were followed by a return to market access. In spite of extended default, countries kept promising high returns that attracted international investors...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969421
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Credit Ratings and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt during the Euro Crisis
Aizenman, Joshua; Hutchison, Michael Mercier; Binici, Mahir - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
This paper investigates the impact of credit rating changes on the sovereign spreads in the European Union and investigates the macro and financial factors that account for the time varying effects of a given credit rating change. We find that changes of ratings are informative, economically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950758
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Bank sovereign bond holdings, sovereign shock spillovers, and moral hazard during the European crisis
Beltratti, Andrea; Stulz, René M. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2015
From 2010 to 2012, the relation between bank stock returns from European Union (EU) countries and the returns on sovereign CDS of peripheral (GIIPS) countries is negative. We use days with tail sovereign CDS returns of peripheral countries to identify the effects of shocks to the cost of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011276429
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What is the Risk of European Sovereign Debt Defaults? Fiscal Space, CDS Spreads and Market Pricing of Risk
Aizenman, Joshua; Hutchison, Michael Mercier; Jinjarak, … - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011
We estimate the pricing of sovereign risk for sixty countries based on fiscal space (debt/tax; deficits/tax) and other economic fundamentals over 2005-10. We measure how accurately the model predicts sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads, focusing in particular on the five countries in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009294566
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The Stock of External Sovereign Debt: Can We Take the Data At 'Face Value'?
Wright, Mark; Dias, Daniel A.; Richmond, Christine J. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011
The stock of sovereign debt is typically measured at face value. This is a misleading indicator when debts are issued with different contractual forms. In this paper we construct a new measure of the stock of external sovereign debt for 100 developing countries from 1979 to 2006 that is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009353490