We present a theory of ethnic conflict in which coalitions formed along ethnic lines compete for the economy … coalition can defect to the winners at low cost, and this rules out conflict as an equilibrium outcome. We derive a number of … implications of the model relating social, political, and economic indicators such as the incidence of conflict, the distance among …

This paper investigates whether poor employment prospects of potential insurgents help to fuel conflict. The paper … benefits are unobserved. In contrast, many other shocks in the conflict literature are persistent and unanticipated, thus also … estimates of the effect of harvest shocks on conflict intensity in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan using subnational variation …

conflict when defense capability is fixed, but may allow for security and prosperity when defense capability is endogenous … of conflict and stagnation. We illustrate the model by analyzing the rise of civilization in Sumeria and Egypt, the first …

We propose a model of cycles of distrust and conflict. Overlapping generations of agents from two groups sequentially … a sequence of bad actions originated. Assuming that both sides are not extremists, spirals of distrust and conflict get … this mechanism can be useful in interpreting cycles of ethnic conflict and international war, and how it also emerges in …

matches recent empirical evidence. Introducing the recent creditor-conflict trend in this model endogenously increases secured …