This book pursues a nonlinear approach in considering both chaotic dynamical models and agent-based simulation models of economics, as well as their dynamical behaviors. Three key concepts arising in this context are “nonlinearity,” “bounded rationality” and “heterogeneity,” which...

The field of artificial economics (AE) embraces a broad range of methodologies relying on computer simulations in order to model and study the complexity of economic and social phenomena. The overarching principle of AE is the analysis of aggregate properties of artificial economies populated by...

Introduction -- Technological Progress: Logistic Growth or Singularity -- Artificial Intelligence -- Artificial Happiness -- Issues in Artificial Intelligence -- Artificial Intelligence in Economics: ACE -- Economics of Artificial Intelligence -- State of the Art, Challenges for AGI

Markets and Trading -- Agent’s Minimal Intelligence Calibration for Realistic Market Dynamics -- Trading on Marginal Information -- Stylized Facts Study through a Multi-Agent Based Simulation of an Artificial Stock Market -- Auctions -- A Variable Bid Increment Algorithm for Reverse English...

In line with the fallacy of riskification of uncertainty by which decision makers believe that the effects of unpredictable phenomena can be captured accurately by probability distributions, organizational scholars commonly treat the organizational inefficiency in dealing with uncertainty...

Managing Uncertainty, Mitigating Risk proposes that financial risk management broaden its approach, maintaining quantification where possible, but incorporating uncertainty. The author shows that by using broad quantification techniques, and using reason as the guiding principle, practitioners...

Are excess returns predictable and if so, what does this mean for investors? Previous literature has tended toward two polar viewpoints: that predictability is useful only if the statistical evidence for it is incontrovertible, or that predictability should affect portfolio choice, even if the...

We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to compare point forecasts of GDP growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters. We find that SPF forecasters summarize their underlying distributions in different ways and that their summaries tend...

The selection of climate policies should be an exercise in risk management reflecting the many relevant sources of uncertainty. Studies of climate change and its impacts rarely yield consensus on the distribution of exposure, vulnerability, or possible outcomes. Hence policy analysis cannot...