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This paper investigates whether it is possible to entertain simultaneously two attractive views about US GDP. The first is that long term growth in US GDP is attributable to an empirically plausible specification of random technical progress. The second is that deviations of GDP from a fitted...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469795
We compute the forecastable changes in output, consumption, and hours implied by a VAR that includes the growth rate of private value added, the share of output that is consumed, and the detrended level of private hours. We show that the size of the forecastable changes in output greatly exceeds...
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The 'International Policy Trilemma' refers to the constraint on independent monetary policy that is forced on a country which remains open to international financial markets and simultaneously pursues an exchange rate target. This paper shows that, in a global economy with open financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459570
choices that maximize the joint welfare of all countries following such a shock, when governments cooperate on both fiscal and … monetary policy. Adjusting to a large negative demand shock requires raising world aggregate demand, as well as redirecting … respond perversely. A negative shock causes an appreciation of the home terms of trade, exacerbating the slump in the home …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461527
Recent macroeconomic experience has drawn attention to the importance of interdependence among countries through financial markets and institutions, independently of traditional trade linkages. This paper develops a model of the international transmission of shocks due to interdependent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462429
This paper develops a welfare-based model of monetary policy in an open economy. We focus on the extent to which monetary policy should be employed in maintaining the exchange rate. The traditional approach maintains that exchange rate flexibility is desirable in the presence of real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471102
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