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Geopolitical Shocks And Commodity Market Dynamics : New Evidence From The Russian-Ukraine Conflict
Aizenman, Joshua; Lindahl, Robert; Stenvall, David; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
food and energy markets. Geopolitical risk affects the European natural gas market more strongly than the US and Asian …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014447271
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The volatility of economic policy uncertainty
Hong, Tacye; Kattuman, Paul A. - 2021
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013175657
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Mitigating Disaster Risks to Sustain Growth
Hong, Harrison - 2020
We provide the planner's solution to a model where households learn from exogenous natural disaster arrivals about arrival rates and spend to mitigate future damages. Mitigation cannot be decentralized due to positive externalities from curtailing aggregate risks. First-best can be implemented...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482023
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Uncertainty and Growth Disasters
Jovanovic, Boyan - 2020
This paper documents several facts on the real effects of economic uncertainty. First, higher uncertainty is associated with a more dispersed distribution of output growth. Second, the relation is highly asymmetric: A rise in uncertainty is associated with a sharp decline in the lower tail of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482243
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Risk, Volatility, and the Global Cross-Section of Growth Rates
Burnside, Craig - 2009
We reconsider the empirical links between volatility and growth between 1970 and 2007. There is a strong and significant correlation between individual country growth rates and global factors that are arguably exogenous with respect to their economies. The amount of volatility driven by these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463424
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Policy Evaluation in Uncertain Economic Environments
Brock, William A. - 2003
This paper develops a decision-theoretic approach to policy analysis. We argue that policy evaluation should be conducted on the basis of two factors: the policymaker's preferences, and the conditional distribution of the outcomes of interest given a policy and available information. From this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468673
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Global impacts of US monetary policy uncertainty shocks
Lastauskas, Povilas; Nguyen, Anh D. M. - 2020
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012416845
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Climate Change and Growth Risks
Bansal, Ravi - 2016
accounts for the interaction between temperature, economic growth and risk. The model simultaneously matches the projected … temperature path, the observed consumption growth dynamics, discount rates provided by the risk-free rate and equity market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455671
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Does Uncertainty Reduce Growth? Using Disasters as Natural Experiments
Baker, Scott R. - 2013
A growing body of evidence suggests that uncertainty is counter cyclical, rising sharply in recessions and falling in booms. But what is the causal relationship between uncertainty and growth? To identify this we construct cross country panel data on stock market levels and volatility as proxies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459187
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Temperature, Aggregate Risk, and Expected Returns
Bansal, Ravi - 2011
In this paper we show that temperature is an aggregate risk factor that adversely affects economic growth. Our argument … temperature (i.e., temperature betas) contains sharp information about the cross-country risk premium; countries closer to the … Equator carry a positive temperature risk premium which decreases as one moves farther away from the Equator. The differences …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461083