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Fiscal Stimulus and Commercial Bank Lending Under COVID-19

Aizenman, Joshua; Jinjarak, Yothin; Spiegel, Mark - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We investigate the implications of extra-normal government spending under the COVID-19 pandemic for commercial bank lending growth between 2019Q4 and 2020Q4 in a large sample of over 3000 banks from 71 countries. We control for pre-pandemic structural factors, bank characteristics and government...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013172181

Sectoral Debt and Global Dollar Cycles in Developing Economies

Han, Bada; Ahmed, Rashad; Aizenman, Joshua; Jinjarak, Yothin - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We explore the role of sectoral debt dynamics in shaping business cycles in a sample of 52 Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) and Frontier Market Economies (FMEs) from 2005 to 2021. Higher household debt levels and growth are associated with significantly slower GDP growth in more developed EMEs...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486174

Privatization in Emerging Markets

Aizenman, Joshua - 1998

This paper evaluates the welfare implications of privatization in emerging market economies, in countries where … policies are determined by the median voter. We show that privatization may lead to large efficiency gains by changing the menu … of taxes. We illustrate this point with two examples. First, we consider privatization of import competing public …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472283

Fiscal fragility : what the past says about the future

Aizenman, Joshua; Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur - 2010

The end of the great moderation has profound implications on the assessment of fiscal sustainability. The pertinent issue goes beyond the obvious increase in the stock of public debt/GDP induced by the global recession, to include the neglected perspective that the vulnerabilities associated...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008689002

What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? : fiscal space, CDS spreads and market mispricing of risk

Aizenman, Joshua; Hutchison, Michael M.; Jinjarak, Yothin - 2011

We estimate the pricing of sovereign risk for a large number of countries within and outside of Europe, before and after the global financial crisis, based on fiscal space and other economic fundamentals. We measure how accurately the model predicts CDS spreads based on fundamentals, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008857043

De facto fiscal space and fiscal stimulus : definition and assessment

Aizenman, Joshua; Jinjarak, Yothin - 2010

We define the notion of 'de facto fiscal space' of a country as the inverse of the outstanding public debt relative to the de facto tax base, where the latter measures the realized tax collection, averaged across several years to smooth for business cycle fluctuations. We apply this concept to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008732193

Using inflation to erode the US public debt

Aizenman, Joshua; Marion, Nancy Peregrim - 2009

As a share of GDP, the U.S. Federal debt held by the public exceeds 50 percent in FY2009, the highest debt ratio since 1955. Projections indicate the debt ratio may be in the 70-100 percent range within ten years. In many respects, the temptation to inflate away some of this debt burden is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003921540

Inflation and Exchange Rate Targeting Challenges Under Fiscal Dominance

Ahmed, Rashad - 2019

Countries have increased significantly their public-sector borrowing since the Global Financial Crisis. In this context, we document several potential fiscal dominance effects during 2000-2017 under Inflation Targeting (IT), and non-IT regimes. Higher ratios of public debt-to-GDP are associated...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479945

Post COVID-19 Exit Strategies and Emerging Markets Economic Challenges

Aizenman, Joshua - 2020

We outline two divergent exit strategies of the U.S. from the post COVID-19 debt-overhang, and analyze their implications on Emerging Markets and global stability. The first strategy is the U.S. aiming at returning to the 2019, pre-COVID mode of loose fiscal policy and accommodating monetary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482186

De facto Fiscal Space and Fiscal Stimulus : Definition and Assessment

Aizenman, Joshua - 2010

We define the notion of a 'de facto fiscal space' of a country as the inverse of the tax-years it would take to repay the public debt. Specifically, we measure the outstanding public debt relative to the de facto tax base, where the latter measures the realized tax collection, averaged across...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462118