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The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 1996

A country's suitability for entry into a currency union depends on a number of economic conditions. These include, inter alia, the intensity of trade with other potential members of the currency union, and the extent to which domestic business cycles are correlated with those of the other...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473138

Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts : Can Private Forecasts Help?

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2016

Government forecasts of GDP growth and budget balances are generally more over-optimistic than private sector forecasts. When official forecasts are especially optimistic relative to private forecasts ex ante, they are more likely also to be over-optimistic relative to realizations ex post. For...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456327

Over-optimistic Official Forecasts in the Eurozone and Fiscal Rules

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2012

. The members of the eurozone are supposedly constrained by the fiscal caps of the Stability and Growth Pact. Yet ever since …•Despite the well-known tendency of eurozone members to exceed the 3% cap on budget deficits, often in consecutive … among eurozone forecasts. If euro area governments are not in violation of the 3% cap at the time forecasts are made …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460377

A Relationship Between Regression Tests and Volatility Tests of Market ncy

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 1983

Volatility tests are an alternative to regression tests for evaluating the joint null hypothesis of market efficiency and risk neutrality. Acomparison of the power of the two kinds of tests depends on what the alternative hypothesis is taken to be. By considering tests based on conditional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477997

An Elaborated Global Climate Policy Architecture : Specific Formulas and Emission Targets for All Countries in All Decades

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2009

This paper analyzes a detailed plan to set quantitative national limits on emissions of greenhouse gases, following along the lines of the Kyoto Protocol. It is designed to fill in the most serious gaps: the absence of targets extending as far as 2100, the absence of participation by the United...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463771

Estimating the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Output

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2000

Gravity-based cross-sectional evidence indicates that currency unions stimulate trade; cross-sectional evidence indicates that trade stimulates output. This paper estimates the effect that currency union has, via trade, on output per capita. We use economic and geographic data for over 200...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470886

Trade and Growth : An Empirical Investigation

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 1996

Countries' geographic characteristics have important effects on their trade, and are plausibly uncorrelated with other determinants of their incomes. This paper therefore constructs measures of the geographic component of countries' trade and uses those measures to obtain instrumental variables...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473383

Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets : Empirical Indicators

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 1996

We use a panel of annual data for over one hundred developing countries from 1971 through 1992 to characterize currency crashes. We define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange rate that is also a substantial increase in the rate of change of nominal depreciation. We examine...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473427

A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 1994

We survey the empirical literature on floating nominal exchange rates over the past decade. Exchange rates are difficult to forecast at short- to medium-term horizons. There is a bit of explanatory power to monetary models such as the Dornbusch 'overshooting' theory, in the form of reaction to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474046

The Constrained Asset Share Estimation (CASE) Method : Testing Mean-Variance Efficiency of the U.S. Stock Market

Engel, Charles - 1993

We apply the method of constrained asset share estimation (CASE) to test the mean-variance efficiency (MVE) of the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474666