Recent trends suggest the world economy may be tending towards an equilibrium with two distinct trading blocs, each … internally integrated, but with significant isolation between the blocs. This paper uses a quantitative theory to explore how far … this bifurcation would need to go to pose a threat to the special role of the dollar in international exchange. The theory …

each from the perspective of the rest of the world (ROW). We show that while U.S. monetary policy shocks act as financial …