We examine the effect of uncertainty on foreign direct investment inflows for a heterogeneous sample of advanced, emerging market and developing countries over a 25 year long (pre-Covid) sample. Using a push-pull framework, and controlling for both global and local factors, we find policy...

In recent years, there has been renewed interest in the moments of the yield curve (or alternatively, the term spread) as a predictor of future economic activity, defined as either recessions, or industrial production growth. In this paper, we re-examine the evidence for this predictor for the...

We assess market mediated financial integration over the last fifty years. We first systematically lay out several definitions of financial integration, and then review the evidence regarding whether covered interest parity, uncovered interest parity, and real interest parity hold across...

The "monetary trilemma" - the hypothesis that full monetary policy autonomy, exchange rate stability, and financial openness cannot simultaneously be achieved - has long been studied. Recently, holding international reserves (IR) has become an important policy instrument, insuring against...

This paper shows that foreign term spreads constructed from bond yields of non-U.S. G-7 constituents predict future U.S. recessions and that foreign term spreads are stronger predictors of U.S. recessions occurring within the next year than U.S. term spreads. U.S. and foreign term spreads are...

We begin by examining determinants of aggregate foreign exchange reserve holdings by central banks (size of issuing country's economy and financial markets, ability of the currency to hold value, and inertia). But understanding the determination of reserve holdings probably requires going beyond...

This paper considers the problem of making inferences about the effects of a program on multiple outcomes when the assignment of treatment status is imperfectly randomized. By imperfect randomization we mean that treatment status is reassigned after an initial randomization on the basis of...