others used the gravity model on a much smaller data set to estimate the effects of the euro on trade among its members. The … that were estimated in the euro's first four years hold up in the second four years? The answer is yes. Second, and more … explanations for the gap between 15% and 200%. First, lags. The euro is still very young. Second, size. The European countries are …

This paper develops the thesis that credit market frictions may be an important contributor to high unemployment in … market imperfections, so unemployment rises and remains high for an extended period. The data show that there has not been … industries is lower than in the U.S.. This suggests that although credit market imperfections are unlikely to have been the major …

over-optimistic relative to realizations ex post. For example, euro area governments during the period 1999 …

the birth of the euro in 1999, members have postponed painful adjustment by making overly optimistic forecasts of future … compact among the euro countries is supposed to make budget rules more binding by putting them into laws and constitutions at …•Although euro members without national budget balance rules have a larger over-optimism bias than non-member countries …

The euro has arisen as a credible eventual competitor to the dollar as leading international currency, much as the … market). There is a tipping phenomenon, but changes are felt only with a long lag (we estimate a weight on the preceding year … euro over the period 1999-2007. This paper updates calculations regarding possible scenarios for the future. We exclude the …