Some previous analyses have suggested that the smoothing of tax rates over time would be a desirable guide for public debt management. One implication of this viewpoint is that future changes in tax rates would be unpredictable based on current information. This proposition is tested by...

This paper estimates expected future real interest rates and inflation rates from observed prices of UK government nominal and index-linked bonds. The estimation method takes account of imperfections in the indexation of UK index-linked bonds. It assumes that expected log returns on all bonds...