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~isPartOf:"NBER working paper series"
~person:"Barro, Robert J."
~person:"Hong, Harrison"
~subject:"Prognoseverfahren"
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Barro, Robert J.
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Forecasting Crashes : Trading Volume, Past Returns and Conditional Skewness in Stock Prices
Chen, Joseph
-
2000
This paper is an investigation into the determinants of asymmetries in stock returns. We develop a series of cross-sectional regression specifications which attempt to forecast skewness in the daily returns of individual stocks. Negative skewness is most pronounced in stocks that have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471074
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2
On the Predictability of Tax-Rate Changes
Barro, Robert J.
-
1981
Some previous analyses have suggested that the smoothing of tax rates over time would be a desirable guide for public debt management. One implication of this viewpoint is that future changes in tax rates would be unpredictable based on current information. This proposition is tested by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478487
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Simple Forecasts and Paradigm Shifts
Hong, Harrison
-
2003
done better over the same period. This
theory
makes several distinctive predictions, which, for concreteness, we develop in … a stock-market setting. For example, starting with symmetric and homoskedastic fundamentals, the
theory
yields …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468685
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