the U.S. would experience a sudden stop of capital flows, which would unavoidably drag the world economy into a deep … instead that the root imbalance was of a different kind: The entire world had an insatiable demand for safe debt instruments … of exposing the economy to a systemic panic. This structural problem can be alleviated if governments around the world …

This paper, written for the NBER Conference on the Changing Role of the United States in the World Economy, covers the …, default and other political risk and exchange risk. But the paper argues that the increase in real interest rates and other …

Global risk-off shocks can be highly destabilizing for financial markets and, absent an adequate policy response, may …-put framework that reduced the persistence of risk-off shocks. We also show that domestic macroeconomic and financial conditions … play a key role in benefiting from the spillovers of these policies during risk-off episodes. Countries like Japan, which …

sub-standard economic performance. They are: long-term trends in world commodity prices, volatility, crowding out of …

world data demand a statistical technique that allows parameters and regimes to shift frequently. Accordingly we here take …