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Economic Uncertainty Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Altig, David - 2020

We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the US and UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective uncertainty about future business growth, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481613

COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty

Baker, Scott R. - 2020

Assessing the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is essential for policymakers, but challenging because the crisis has unfolded with extreme speed. We identify three indicators - stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic uncertainty, and subjective uncertainty in business...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481939

Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty

Baker, Scott R. - 2015

We develop a new index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) based on newspaper coverage frequency. Several types of evidence - including human readings of 12,000 newspaper articles - indicate that our index proxies for movements in policy-related economic uncertainty. Our US index spikes near...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457036

What Triggers Stock Market Jumps?

Baker, Scott; Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J.; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

We examine next-day newspaper accounts of large daily jumps in 16 national stock markets to assess their proximate cause, clarity as to cause, and the geographic source of the market-moving news. Our sample of 6,200 market jumps yields several findings. First, policy news - mainly associated...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012510565

Stock Prices, Lockdowns, and Economic Activity in the Time of Coronavirus

Davis, Steven J.; Liu, Dingqian; Sheng, Xuguang - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

Stock prices and workplace mobility trace out striking clockwise paths in daily data from mid-February to late May 2020. Global stock prices fell 30 percent from 17 February to 12 March, before mobility declined. Over the next 11 days, stocks fell another 10 percentage points as mobility dropped...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482538

Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums

Jordà, Òscar - 2018

in the comovement of global equity markets is particularly notable. We demonstrate that fluctuations in risk premiums …, and not risk-free rates and dividends, account for a large part of the observed equity price synchronization after 1990 …. We also show that U.S. monetary policy has come to play an important role as a source of fluctuations in risk appetite …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453043