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Baker, Scott; Davis, Steven J.; Levy, Jeffrey A. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We quantify and study state-level economic policy uncertainty. Tapping digital archives for nearly 3,500 local newspapers, we construct three monthly indexes for each state: one that captures state and local sources of policy uncertainty (EPU-S), one that captures national and international...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938683

Surveying Business Uncertainty

Altig, David - 2019

We elicit subjective probability distributions from business executives about their own-firm outcomes at a one-year look-ahead horizon. In terms of question design, our key innovation is to let survey respondents freely select support points and probabilities in five-point distributions over...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479906

Why Has U.S. Policy Uncertainty Risen Since 1960?

Baker, Scott - 2014

There appears to be a strong upward drift in policy-related economic uncertainty after 1960. We consider two classes of explanations for this rise. The first stresses growth in government spending, taxes, and regulation. A second stresses increased political polarization and its implications for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458838

Firm-Level Risk Exposures and Stock Returns in the Wake of COVID-19

Davis, Steven J. - 2020

Firm-level stock returns differ enormously in reaction to COVID-19 news. We characterize these reactions using the Risk … characterizations of risk exposures and outperforming the dictionary approach in goodness-of-fit. By integrating elements of both … approaches, we uncover new risk factors and sharpen our explanations for firm-level returns. To illustrate the broader utility of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481171

Monetary Versus Macroprudential Policies : Causal Impacts of Interest Rates and Credit Controls in the Era of the UK Radcliffe Report

Aikman, David - 2016

We have entered a world of conjoined monetary and macroprudential policies. But can they function smoothly in tandem …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456297

Credit, Financial Stability, and the Macroeconomy

Taylor, Alan M. - 2015

Since the 2008 global financial crisis, and after decades of relative neglect, the importance of the financial system and its episodic crises as drivers of macroeconomic outcomes has attracted fresh scrutiny from academics, policy makers, and practitioners. Theoretical advances are following a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457629

The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy

Jordà, Òscar - 2020

Is the effect of monetary policy on the productive capacity of the economy long lived? Yes, in fact we find such impacts are significant and last for over a decade based on: (1) merged data from two new international historical databases; (2) identification of exogenous monetary policy using the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479190

The Economic Effects of Private Equity Buyouts

Davis, Steven J. - 2019

We examine thousands of U.S. private equity (PE) buyouts from 1980 to 2013, a period that saw huge swings in credit market tightness and GDP growth. Our results show striking, systematic differences in the real-side effects of PE buyouts, depending on buyout type and external conditions....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480316

Policy Uncertainty In Japan

Arbatli, Elif C. - 2017

We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters and uncertainty....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455270

Longer-run Economic Consequences of Pandemics

Jordà, Òscar - 2020

What are the medium- to long-term effects of pandemics? How do they differ from other economic disasters? We study major pandemics using the rates of return on assets stretching back to the 14th century. Significant macroeconomic after-effects of pandemics persist for about decades, with real...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481892