Many ways exist to measure and model financial asset volatility. In principle, as the frequency of the data increases, the quality of forecasts should improve. Yet, there is no consensus about a true' or best' measure of volatility. In this paper we propose to jointly consider absolute daily...

This paper introduces the News Impact Curve to measure how new information is incorporated into volatility estimates. A variety of new and existing ARCH models are compared and estimated with daily Japanese stock return data to determine the shape of the News Impact Curve. New diagnostic tests...

Is the long-term trend of the economy -- growth -- substantially influenced by the short-term movements -- business cycles -- and, if so, how? Are business cycles subject to major secular changes? Are these fluctuations the natural way growth takes in private enterprise economies or are they...

This paper examines the flow of production and use of economic information and analyzes the effects of measurement errors, particularly as transmitted through expectations and forecasts. Economic data are subject to a variety of errors, and the uncertainty about economic measures tends to...

A study of business cycles defined as sequences of expansions and contractions in the level of general economic activity does not require trend estimation and elimination, but a study of growth cycles defined as sequences of high and low growth phases does. Major cyclical slowdowns and booms...

We distinguish the measure of risk aversion from the slope coefficient in the linear relationship between the mean excess return on a stock index and its variance. Even when risk aversion is constant, the latter can vary significantly with the relative share of stocks in the risky wealth...