regimes. We pay particular attention to the BBC and offer a new approach to parameter estimation by utilizing a three …

others used the gravity model on a much smaller data set to estimate the effects of the euro on trade among its members. The … that were estimated in the euro's first four years hold up in the second four years? The answer is yes. Second, and more … explanations for the gap between 15% and 200%. First, lags. The euro is still very young. Second, size. The European countries are …

over-optimistic relative to realizations ex post. For example, euro area governments during the period 1999 …

among eurozone forecasts. If euro area governments are not in violation of the 3% cap at the time forecasts are made …. The members of the eurozone are supposedly constrained by the fiscal caps of the Stability and Growth Pact. Yet ever since … the birth of the euro in 1999, members have postponed painful adjustment by making overly optimistic forecasts of future …

exchange rate pegs: to the dollar, euro and SDR. One candidate is orthodox Inflation Targeting. Three candidates represent …

Models of dynamic inconsistency in monetary policy and the need for central bank independence and commitment to nominal …