We develop a model in which innovations in an economy's growth potential are an important driving force of the business cycle. The framework shares the emphasis of the recent "new shock" literature on revisions of beliefs about the future as a source of fluctuations, but differs by tieing these...

In this paper we investigate the sources of the important shifts in the volatility of U.S. macroeconomic variables in the postwar period. To this end, we propose the estimation of DSGE models allowing for time variation in the volatility of the structural innovations. We apply our estimation...

As is well known, during the pandemic recession firms directly exposed to the virus, i.e. the "contact" sector, contracted sharply and recovered slowly relative to the rest of the economy. Less understood is how firms that "won" by offering safer substitutes for contact sector goods have...