We examine the impacts of the 2018-2019 U.S. import tariff increases on U.S. export growth through the lens of supply … manufacturing employment. For all affected firms, the implied cost is $900 per worker in new duties. To estimate the effect on U.S …. export growth, we construct product-level measures of import tariff exposure of U.S. exports from the underlying firm micro …

We use the 2018-2019 U.S. trade war to examine how supply chains adjustments to a tariff cost shock affect imports and … discontinuations of U.S. buyer-foreign supplier relationships, reduced formation of new relationships, and exits by U.S. firms from …

trade policy risk across products and asymmetric for UK and EU exporters. We estimate that a persistent doubling of the … probability of Brexit at the average disagreement tariff of 4.5% lowers EU-UK bilateral export values by 15 log points on average …, and more so for EU than UK exporters. Neither believed a trade war was likely …

theory-based measure of policy uncertainty. Our novel approach using observable trade policies allows us to estimate the …