This paper proposes a method for separating economic time series into a smooth component whose mean varies over time (the trend') and a stationary component (the cycle'). The aim is to make the trends as smooth as possible while also producing cycles with plausible properties. While the main...

We consider a model in which the level of taxes and seignorage are too low to finance government expenditures and debt service. Government debt will therefore grow without bound, implying the eventual need to change policy. Starting with utility maximization, we analyze the effect of the...

The management of the exchange rate is possible only if the government pursues a monetary-fiscal policy mix which is consistent with its exchange rate targets. In this paper with uncertainty concerning the length of individual life the real consequences of exchange rate management depend on the...

This paper estimates simultaneously dynamic equations for the Deutsche Mark/Dollar exchange rate and the German wholesale price index, which emerge from a model in which German prices are sticky. This stickiness is due to price adjustment costs which take the form posited by Rotemberg(1982).The...

This paper presents a dynamic model of the industrial demands for structures, equipment, and blue- and white-collar labor. Our approach is consistent with producers holding rational expectations and optimizing dynamically in the presence of adjustment costs, yet it permits generality of...

This paper presents the competitive equilibrium of an economy in which people hold money for transactions purposes. It studies both the steady states which result from different rates of monetary expansion and the effects of such non-steady state events as an open market operation. Even though...

Modern neoclassical theories of the business cycle posit that aggregate fluctuations in consumption and employment are the consequence of dynamic optimizing behavior by economic agents who face no quantity constraint. In this paper, we estimate an explicit model :f this type. In particular, we...

Two of the puzzling macroeconomic phenomena of the 1970s have been the persistent stagnation in Europe, and the disagreement between the U.S. and Europe on the feasibility of recovery by demand expansion. This paper develops the hypothesis that the source of both the stagnation and the policy...

A model is developed which rationalizes contracts that give depositors the right to obtain funds on demand even when depositors intend to use these funds for consumption in the future. This is explained by depositor overoptimism regarding their own ability to collect funds in a run. Capitalized...