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DSGE Model-Based Forecasting of Non-modelled Variables

Schorfheide, Frank - 2009

This paper develops and illustrates a simple method to generate a DSGE model-based forecast for variables that do not explicitly appear in the model (non-core variables). We use auxiliary regressions that resemble measurement equations in a dynamic factor model to link the non-core variables to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463776

Identifying Long-Run Risks : A Bayesian Mixed-Frequency Approach

Schorfheide, Frank - 2014

multiple stochastic volatility processes. The estimation is based on annual consumption data from 1929 to 1959, monthly … Bayesian estimation provides strong evidence for a small predictable component in consumption growth (even if asset return data … are omitted from the estimation). Three independent volatility processes capture different frequency dynamics; our …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458363

Improving GDP Measurement : A Forecast Combination Perspective

Aruoba, S. Boragan - 2011

Two often-divergent U.S. GDP estimates are available, a widely-used expenditure side version, GDPE, and a much less widely-used income-side version GDPI . We propose and explore a "forecast combination" approach to combining them. We then put the theory to work, producing a superior combined...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461237

Real-Time Forecast Evaluation of DSGE Models with Stochastic Volatility

Diebold, Francis X. - 2016

Recent work has analyzed the forecasting performance of standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, but little attention has been given to DSGE models that incorporate nonlinearities in exogenous driving processes. Against that background, we explore whether incorporating...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456064

Dynamic Prediction Pools : An Investigation of Financial Frictions and Forecasting Performance

Del Negro, Marco - 2014

We provide a novel methodology for estimating time-varying weights in linear prediction pools, which we call Dynamic Pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of DSGE models with and without financial frictions for output growth and inflation from 1992 to 2011. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458090

Sticky Prices Versus Monetary Frictions : An Estimation of Policy Trade-offs

Aruoba, S. Boragan - 2009

We develop a two-sector monetary model with a centralized and decentralized market. Activities in the centralized market resemble those in a standard New Keynesian economy with price rigidities. In the decentralized market agents engage in bilateral exchanges for which money is essential. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463778

Monetary Policy Analysis with Potentially Misspecified Models

Del Negro, Marco - 2007

: estimation of parameters that are relevant for policy trade-offs and treatment of estimated deviations from the cross …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465555

Shrinkage Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models with Structural Instabilities

Cheng, Xu - 2014

In high-dimensional factor models, both the factor loadings and the number of factors may change over time. This paper proposes a shrinkage estimator that detects and disentangles these instabilities. The new method simultaneously and consistently estimates the number of pre- and post-break...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458871

Assessing DSGE Model Nonlinearities

Aruoba, S. Borağan - 2013

We develop a new class of nonlinear time-series models to identify nonlinearities in the data and to evaluate nonlinear DSGE models. U.S. output growth and the federal funds rate display nonlinear conditional mean dynamics, while inflation and nominal wage growth feature conditional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458969