Is the long-term trend of the economy -- growth -- substantially influenced by the short-term movements -- business cycles -- and, if so, how? Are business cycles subject to major secular changes? Are these fluctuations the natural way growth takes in private enterprise economies or are they...

This paper examines the flow of production and use of economic information and analyzes the effects of measurement errors, particularly as transmitted through expectations and forecasts. Economic data are subject to a variety of errors, and the uncertainty about economic measures tends to...

A study of business cycles defined as sequences of expansions and contractions in the level of general economic activity does not require trend estimation and elimination, but a study of growth cycles defined as sequences of high and low growth phases does. Major cyclical slowdowns and booms...