We develop a model of pandemic risk management and firm valuation. We introduce aggregate transmission shocks into an …

setting, an increase in uncertainty about future shocks causes significant contractions in the economy and may lead to non … outcomes. Fluctuations in uncertainty and the zero lower bound help our model match the unconditional and stochastic volatility …

the mean and volatility of equity returns. Our model assumes a small risk of a rare disaster that is calibrated based on … the international data on large consumption declines. We allow the risk of this rare disaster to be stochastic, which …

We present a two-armed bandit model of decision making under uncertainty where the expected return to investing in the …

In this paper we extend the recent work on the choice of input mix under uncertainty. In particular, we demonstrate … overall effect of uncertainty on the optimal input mix of a firm. Using general demand and production functions in conjunction …-systematic risk on the firm's choice of an optimal input mix. Consistent with earlier work in economics, this analysis demonstrates …

asset prices and corporate default risk. Our model includes two empirically grounded nominal frictions: fixed nominal …

-varying uncertainty (i.e., volatility) about future economic prospects drive asset prices. These two channels of economic risks can … account for the risk premia and asset price fluctuations. In addition, the model can empirically account for the cross …

dividend yield is typically viewed as a reflection of either changing risk, related to the business cycle, or irrational … risk as well as expected return, we develop Bayesian methods to examine the interaction between the data and an investor … and a riskless asset. In general, however, the simple risk/return model of Merton (1980) explains very little of the yield …

unconditional cross-sectional moments of household consumption growth and the moments of the risk-free rate, equity premium, price …-dividend ratio, and aggregate dividend and consumption growth. The model-implied risk-free rate and price-dividend ratio are … procyclical while the market return has countercyclical mean and variance. Finally, household consumption risk explains the cross …

, arises because these models load all uncertainty onto the supply side of the economy. We propose a simple theory of asset … pricing in which demand shocks play a central role. These shocks give rise to valuation risk that allows the model to account …