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Is the pricing of sovereign risk linear during bearish episodes? Or can initial shocks on economic fundamentals be exacerbated by endogenous factors that create nonlinearities? We test for nonlinearities in the sovereign bond market of European peripheral countries during the debt crisis and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458679
We model a reinsurance mechanism for the national unemployment insurance programs of euro area member states. The risk-sharing scheme we analyze is designed to smooth country-level unemployment risk and expenditures around each country's median level, so that participation and contributions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544675
process in Greece, Spain, Ireland, and Portugal and, by way of contrast, in Germany, a country that did experience a reform …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459762
econometric issues are addressed including estimation of the number of dynamic factors and tests for the factor restrictions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467213
We present a framework for computing and evaluating linear projections of macro variables conditional on hypothetical paths of monetary policy. A modest policy intervention is a change in policy that does not significantly shift agents' beliefs about policy regime and does not generate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469518
Most empirical analyses of monetary policy have been confined to frameworks in which the Federal Reserve is implicitly assumed to exploit only a limited amount of information, despite the fact that the Fed actively monitors literally thousands of economic time series. This article explores the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470341
. The estimation of key parameters uses a simulated method of moments approach to match moments related to asset market … estimation are used to characterize the distributions of the marginal propensity to consume across households for each of the … policy-induced variations in stock returns. Finally, monetary contractions have a larger impact on consumption in Germany and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480733
We propose a framework for estimation of spillovers between funding costs of individual banks. The estimation proceeds … in three steps: First, using data from liquidity auctions of the European Central Bank, we estimate the funding costs in … a given week for each individual bank. In the second step, we apply the adaptive elastic net (a LASSO type estimator) to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457206
We use a network model of credit risk to measure market expectations of the potential spillovers from a sovereign default. Specifically, we develop an empirical model, based on the recent theoretical literature on contagion in financial networks, and estimate it with data on sovereign credit...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458098
destroyed the Bretton Woods System. Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy have suffered from balance-of-payments deficits … additional central bank money that flowed to the euro core countries, Germany in particular, and crowded out the central bank …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461031