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Where Have All the Workers Gone? Recalls, Retirements, and Reallocation in the COVID Recovery

Forsythe, Eliza; Kahn, Lisa B.; Lange, Fabian; Wiczer, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

At the onset of the COVID pandemic, the U.S. economy suddenly and swiftly lost 20 million jobs. Over the next two years, the economy has been on the recovery path. We assess the labor market two years into the COVID crisis. We show that early employment dynamics were almost entirely driven by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362041

Bonus Question : Does Flexible Incentive Pay Dampen Unemployment Dynamics?

Gaur, Meghana; Grigsby, John R.; Hazell, Jonathon; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We introduce dynamic incentive contracts into a model of unemployment dynamics and present three results. First, wage … cyclicality from incentives does not dampen unemployment dynamics: the response of unemployment to shocks is first … cyclicality from bargaining dampens unemployment dynamics through the standard mechanism. Third, our calibrated model suggests 46 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372479

When Institutions Interact : How the Effects of Unemployment Insurance are Shaped by Retirement Policies

Gudgeon, Matthew; Guzman, Pablo; Schmieder, Johannes; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

This paper shows empirically that the non-employment effects of unemployment insurance (UI) for older workers depend in … with retirement policies. Accounting for interactions across UI and retirement institutions also helps explain otherwise … difficult-to-explain trends in the unemployment rate of older German workers …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014421233

Fundamentally Reforming the DI System : Evidence from German Notch Cohorts

Fischer, Bjoern; Geyer, Johannes Micha; Ziebarth, Nicolas R. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We study a fundamental reform of the public Disability Insurance (DI) system in Germany. Effective 2001, cohorts born after 1960 are no longer eligible for "occupational DI." Occupational DI (ODI) implies benefit eligibility when health shocks prevent employees from working in their previous...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013477304

The Job Ladder : Inflation vs. Reallocation

Moscarini, Giuseppe; Postel-Vinay, Fabien - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

, unemployment and inflation to aggregate shocks. The ratio between job-finding probabilities from job-to-job and from unemployment … the unemployment rate …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322853

Global Trends in Income Inequality and Income Dynamics : New Insights from GRID

Guvenen, Fatih; Pistaferri, Luigi; Violante, Giovanni L. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

The Global Repository of Income Dynamics (GRID) is a new open-access, cross- country database that contains a wide range of micro statistics on income inequality, dynamics, and mobility. It has four key characteristics: it is built on micro panel data drawn from administrative records; it fully...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013388880

The Gender Gap in Earnings Losses after Job Displacement

Illing, Hannah; Schmieder, Johannes; Trenkle, Simon - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

Existing research has shown that job displacement leads to large and persistent earnings losses for men, but evidence for women is scarce. Using administrative data from Germany, we apply an event study design in combination with propensity score matching and a reweighting technique to directly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012629471

Worker Beliefs About Outside Options

Jäger, Simon; Roth, Christopher; Roussille, Nina; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

Workers wrongly anchor their beliefs about outside options on their current wage. In particular, low-paid workers underestimate wages elsewhere. We document this anchoring bias by eliciting workers' beliefs in a representative survey in Germany and comparing them to measures of actual outside...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794650

Does Pain Lead to Job Loss? A Panel Study for Germany

Piper, Alan T.; Blanchflower, David G.; Bryson, Alex - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

are more likely than others to leave their job for unemployment or economic inactivity. This probability rises with the …The cross-sectional association between pain and unemployment is well-established. But the absence of panel data …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012533412

Job Displacement and Job Mobility : The Role of Joblessness

Fallick, Bruce; Haltiwanger, John C.; McEntarfer, Erika; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

Who is harmed by and who benefits from worker reallocation? We investigate the earnings consequences of changing jobs and find a wide dispersion in outcomes. This dispersion is driven not by whether the worker was displaced, but by the duration of joblessness between job spells. Job movers who...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012616634