We introduce dynamic incentive contracts into a model of unemployment dynamics and present three results. First, wage … cyclicality from incentives does not dampen unemployment dynamics: the response of unemployment to shocks is first … cyclicality from bargaining dampens unemployment dynamics through the standard mechanism. Third, our calibrated model suggests 46 …

, unemployment and inflation to aggregate shocks. The ratio between job-finding probabilities from job-to-job and from unemployment … the unemployment rate …

This paper develops new estimates of flows into and out of unemployment that allow for unobserved heterogeneity across … workers as well as direct effects of unemployment duration on unemployment-exit probabilities. Unlike any previous paper in … shocks to the short-run, medium-run, and long-run variance of unemployment as well as to specific historical episodes. We …

unemployment to employment in routine occupations, (ii) that from labor force non-participation to routine employment, and (iii …

signals. The University of Michigan Social Media Job Loss Index tracks initial claims for unemployment insurance at medium and …

The flow opportunity cost of moving from unemployment to employment consists of foregone public benefits and the … is procyclical and volatile over the business cycle. The estimated cyclicality implies far less unemployment volatility …