This paper conducts counterfactual historical analysis of several monetary policy rules by contrasting actual settings of instrument variables with values that would have been specified by the rules in response to prevailing conditions. Of particular interest is whether major policy mistakes,...

This paper is a recap of G3 exchange rate relationships since the collapse of Bretton Woods and an analysis of recent proposals for changing the way the G3 countries currently conduct exchange rate policy. We seek to understand these proposals in the context of the status quo monetary policies...

How will countries handle idiosyncratic national macroeconomic shocks under the European single currency? The ways in which European countries now react to internally asymmetric shocks provide a better forecast than do the regional response pattern of the United States. In this paper we compare...

Urban public transit agencies spend billions of dollars each year on workers, durable capital and energy to supply transportation services. During a time of rising concern about climate change, the urban public transit sector has not significantly reduced its carbon footprint. Using data for the...

This paper addresses the question of whether nominal Eurocurrency interest rates provide significant information about expected inflation. To test this question two sets of inflation forecasts for the U.S. and five European countries were generated: 1) from time series of past inflation rates;2)...

In this paper, a vector autoregression model (VAR) is proposed in order to test uncovered interest parity (UIP) in the foreign exchange market. Consider a VAR system of the spot exchange rate (yen/dollar), the domestic (US) interest rate and the foreign (Japanese) interest rate, describing the...

This working paper presents Chapter 7 of a book to be published for the National Bureau of Economic Research by the University of Chicago Press. The point of the book is to compare taxes on income from capital in four countries,accounting for corporate, personal, and property taxes, and...

This working paper presents Chapter 2 of a book that has been submitted to the University of Chicago Press for publication consideration. The point of the book is to compare taxes on income from capital infour countries,accounting for corporate, personal, and property taxes, and including...

This paper examines the operation of the gold standard and the performance of the Bank of England during the crisis of 1847. The key feature of that crisis has been its origin: it originated from a massive real shock rather than from monetary disorder. A harvest failure gave rise to commercial...

Arthur M. Okun's last book, Prices and Quantities, contributes a theory of universal wage and price stickiness, but provides no explanation at all of historical and cross country differences in behavior. The core of this paper provides a new empirical characterization of price and wage changes...