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In this paper, we explore the link between stress in the domestic financial sector and the capital flight faced by countries in the 2008-9 global crisis. Both the timing of emergence of internal financial stress in developing economies, and the size of the peak-trough declines in the stock price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462052
, and show that it has significant explanatory power for the evolution of macroeconomic volatility. We define "fundamental …" volatility as the volatility that would arise from an economy made entirely of idiosyncratic microeconomic shocks, occurring … different sectors vary over time (in a way we directly measure), while the volatility of those sectors remains constant. We find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462232
role for credit growth (beyond its role in constructing the inflation forecast) would reduce the volatility of output and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462254
The paper presents a new empirical regularity between the volatility of productivity growth and long-run unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462282
It has been suggested that countries which export in especially risky sectors will experience higher output volatility …. This measure is strongly correlated with terms-of-trade and output volatility, but does not exhibit a close relationship to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462648
sub-standard economic performance. They are: long-term trends in world commodity prices, volatility, crowding out of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462796
The national terms of trade, defined as the ratio of an export price index to an import price index has been extensively studied empirically. In this paper we construct an alternative measure, which we call the consumption terms of trade. This measure recognizes the fact that consumers and firms...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463069
Stock and Treasury bond comovement, volatilities, and their relations to their price valuations and fundamentals change stochastically over time, both in magnitude and direction. These stochastic changes are explained by a general equilibrium model in which agents learn about composite economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463086
We reconsider the empirical links between volatility and growth between 1970 and 2007. There is a strong and … their economies. The amount of volatility driven by these external factors is highly correlated, cross-sectionally, with the … overall amount of volatility in GDP growth. There is also a strong correlation between a country's average growth rate and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463424
Data show that better creditor protection is correlated across countries with lower average stock market volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463509