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unconditional cross-sectional moments of household consumption growth and the moments of the risk-free rate, equity premium, price …-dividend ratio, and aggregate dividend and consumption growth. The model-implied risk-free rate and price-dividend ratio are … procyclical while the market return has countercyclical mean and variance. Finally, household consumption risk explains the cross …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458555
Using new employer-employee matched data, this paper investigates the impact of uncertainty, as measured by idiosyncratic stock market volatility, on individual outcomes. We find that firms provide at best partial insurance to their workers. An increase in firm-level uncertainty is associated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481194
, the model provides a closer match between theory and data with respect to the correlation between relative consumption … growth and real exchange rate changes, a key measure of international risk-sharing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461368
with low income uncertainty; for the high income risk worker, equity exposure rises until retirement. We also evaluate how … differences in social security benefits can influence retirement risk management …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462970
We study the effects of on-the-job skill accumulation on average hours worked by age and the volatility of hours over the life cycle in a calibrated general equilibrium model. Two forms of skill accumulation are considered: learning by doing and on-the-job training. In our economy with learning...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465043
and 2) The premium for holding equity, over a safe government bond, is large. The equity premium has two parts; a risk … savings rates and I use this model to account for a high term premium and a volatile stochastic discount factor. The fact the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458706
only fits standard salient asset prices features including means and volatilities for equity returns and risk free rates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463427
In this paper we show that measures of economic uncertainty (conditional volatility of consumption) predict and are predicted by valuation ratios at long horizons. Further we document that asset valuations drop as economic uncertainty rises that is, financial markets dislike economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469320
We propose a method to measure the welfare cost of economic fluctuations that does not require full specification of consumer preferences and instead uses asset prices. The method is based on the marginal cost of consumption fluctuations, the per unit benefit of a marginal reduction in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470758
shows that regimes of low interest rates and high asset valuations are characterized by lower equity market risk premia and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456107