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Dampening General Equilibrium : Incomplete Information and Bounded Rationality

Angeletos, Marios; Lian, Chen - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We review how realistic frictions in information and/or rationality arrest general equilibrium (GE) feedbacks. In one specification, we maintain rational expectations but remove common knowledge of aggregate shocks. In another, we replace rational expectations with Level-k Thinking or a smooth...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938745

Adapting to Flood Risk : Evidence from a Panel of Global Cities

Gandhi, Sahil; Kahn, Matthew E.; Kochhar, Rajat; Lall, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

Urban flooding poses danger to people and places. People can adapt to this risk by moving to safer areas or by investing in private self-protection. Places can offset some of the risk through urban planning and infrastructure investment. By constructing a global city data set that covers the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334356

International Climate Agreements and the Scream of Greta

Maggi, Giovanni; Staiger, Robert W. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

Current policies directed at mitigating global warming appear unlikely to prevent temperatures from rising to levels that would trigger a precipitous increase in the costs of climate change. Various attempts at international cooperation to avoid this outcome have failed. Why is this problem so...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013462728

Natural and Neutral Real Interest Rates : Past and Future

Obstfeld, Maurice - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

This paper surveys the decline in real interest rates in advanced and emerging economies over the past several decades, linking that process to a range of global factors that have operated with different force in different periods. The paper argues that estimates of long-run equilibrium real...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014447270

Exchange Rate Models are Better than You Think, and Why They Didn't Work in the Old Days

Engel, Charles; Wu, Steve P. Y. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

Exchange-rate models fit very well for the U.S. dollar in the 21st century. A "standard" model that includes real interest rates and a measure of expected inflation for the U.S. and the foreign country, the U.S. comprehensive trade balance, and measures of global risk and liquidity demand is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056131

Global Hegemony and Exorbitant Privilege

Pflueger, Carolin E.; Yared, Pierre - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We present a dynamic two-country model in which military spending, geopolitical risk, and government bond prices are jointly determined. The model is consistent with three empirical facts: hegemons have a funding advantage, this advantage rises with geopolitical tensions, and war losers suffer...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056136

Fair Trade Agreements

Passarelli, Francesco; Staiger, Robert W. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

The legitimacy of the world trading system is under growing attack, as challenges to its conformity with norms of … fairness and social justice are increasingly voiced by citizens and their governments around the world. Taking a novel "bottom …-related fairness concerns of their citizens. More generally, our findings point to a detailed understanding of real-world perceptions …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056179

The Female Happiness Paradox

Blanchflower, David G.; Bryson, Alex - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

Using data across countries and over time we show that women are unhappier than men in unhappiness and negative affect equations, irrespective of the measure used - anxiety, depression, fearfulness, sadness, loneliness, anger - and they have more days with bad mental health and more restless...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013172192

Global Shocks, Institutional Development, and Trade Restrictions : What Can We Learn from Crises and Recoveries Between 1990 and 2022?

Aizenman, Joshua; Itō, Hiro; Park, Donghyun; Saadaoui, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2025

The Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic were two major shocks to the world economy in the 21st century …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015409788

Old Moats for New Models : Openness, Control, and Competition in Generative AI

Azoulay, Pierre; Krieger, Joshua L.; Nagaraj, Abhishek - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

Drawing insights from the field of innovation economics, we discuss the likely competitive environment shaping generative AI advances. Central to our analysis are the concepts of appropriability--whether firms in the industry are able to control the knowledge generated by their innovations--and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544752