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The Political Economy of Hatred
Glaeser, Edward L. - 2002
What determines the intensity and objects of hatred? Hatred forms when people believe that out-groups are responsible for past and future crimes, but the reality of past crimes has little to do with the level of hatred. Instead, hatred is the result of an equilibrium where politicians supply...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469539
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Australia Farewell : Predictors of Emigration in the 2000s
Burkhauser, Richard V. - 2016
The factors leading individuals to immigrate to developed nations are widely studied, but comparatively less is known about those who emigrate from them. In this paper, we use data from a nationally representative cohort of Australian adults to develop longitudinal measures of emigration and to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456754
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The Economic Impact of Social Ties : Evidence from German Reunification
Burchardi, Konrad B. - 2011
We use the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 to show that personal relationships which individuals maintain for non-economic reasons can be an important determinant of regional economic growth. We show that West German households who have social ties to East Germany in 1989 experience a persistent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461472
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Probabilistic Prediction for Binary Treatment Choice : with Focus on Personalized Medicine
Manski, Charles F. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
This paper extends my research applying statistical decision theory to treatment choice with sample data, using maximum … in indirect ways, the former applying classical statistical theory and the latter measuring prediction accuracy in test … samples. Neither approach is satisfactory. Statistical decision theory provides a coherent, generally applicable methodology …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660036
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Comprehensive OOS Evaluation of Predictive Algorithms with Statistical Decision Theory
Dominitz, Jeff; Manski, Charles F. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We argue that comprehensive out-of-sample (OOS) evaluation using statistical decision theory (SDT) should replace the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512123
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Robust-H-infinity Forecasting and Asset Pricing Anomalies
Tornell, Aaron - 2000
We present an alternative expectation formation mechanism that helps rationalize well known asset pricing anomalies, such as the predictability of excess returns, excess volatility, and the equity-premium puzzle. As with rational expectations (RE), the expectation formation mechanism we consider...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470997
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Estimation Risk, Market Efficiency, and the Predictability of Returns
Lewellen, Jonathan - 2000
In asset pricing, estimation risk refers to investor uncertainty about the parameters of the return or cashflow process. We show that with estimation risk the observable properties of prices and returns can differ significantly from the properties perceived by rational investors. In particular,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471062
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Forecasting Crashes : Trading Volume, Past Returns and Conditional Skewness in Stock Prices
Chen, Joseph - 2000
This paper is an investigation into the determinants of asymmetries in stock returns. We develop a series of cross-sectional regression specifications which attempt to forecast skewness in the daily returns of individual stocks. Negative skewness is most pronounced in stocks that have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471074
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Expectations Hypotheses Tests
Bekaert, Geert - 2000
We investigate the Expectations Hypotheses of the term structure of interest rates and of the foreign exchange market using vector autoregressive methods for the U.S. dollar, Deutsche mark, and British pound interest rates and exchange rates. In addition to standard Wald tests, we formulate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471161
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Why a Funded Pension System is Useful and Why It is Not Useful
Sinn, Hans-Werner - 2000
Based on explicit present value calculations, the paper criticizes the view that the PAYGO system wastes economic resources. In present value terms, there is nothing to be gained from a transition to funded system even though the latter offers a permanently higher rate of return. The sum of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471177