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Exchange rates of currencies in the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the EMS are characterized by long periods of stability interrupted by periods of extreme volatility. The periods of volatility appear at times of realignments of the central parities and at times when the exchange rate is within the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474081
In the United States, many industries have a Silicon Valley-type geographic localization. In Europe, these same … the possibility that Europe will develop an American-style economic geography. This paper uses a theoretical model of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474381
Realignment expectations which measure exchange rate credibility are analyzed for European exchange rates, using daily financial data since the inception of the EMS. It is difficult to find economically meaningful relationships between realignment expectations and macroeconomic variables,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474450
Standard models of policy credibility. defined as the expectation that an announced policy will be carried out. emphasize the preferences of the policymaker (his "type") and the role of policies in signaling type. Whether a policy is carried out. however. should also reflect the state of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474498
The dramatic implosion and regionalization of international trade during the 1930s has often been blamed on the trade and foreign exchange policies that emerged in the interwar period. We provide new evidence on the impact of trade and currency blocs on trade flows from 1928 1938 that suggests a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474505
This paper addresses two questions: (1) Is a twelve country monetary union in Europe feasible; (2) Can monetary union … upon at "how many speeds" Europe will proceed. Our discussion of feasibility shed some light on the political economy of … the recent (Fall of 1992) turmoil in the monetary system of Europe …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474609
The stability of the EMS depends crucially on realignment expectations of the market participants. In this paper we discuss how to measure such expectations and how to relate them to economic fundamentals, central bank reputation, and institutional arrangements of the EMS. We find the following...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474669
This paper develops and estimates a model of the time at which market participants expected the French franc to be devalued relative to the German deutschemark during the early years of the European Monetary System. The model assumes that the expected time of exchange rate realignment is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474911
History provides us with many examples of multiple country fixed exchange rate regimes that have eventually fallen apart. In light of these failures, why has the EMS been so successful in stabilizing exchange rates among members, and in expanding its membership? This paper argues that one key...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474922
Today's value of the private ECU is driven by expectations that a European monetary authority will at some future date declare itself willing to convert the private ECU into the official basket at par. Until then, its value is not limited by any existing institutional arrangements in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474963