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Real Business Cycles in Emerging Countries?
García-Cicco, Javier - 2006
We use more than one century of Argentine and Mexican data to estimate the structural parameters of a small-open-economy real-business-cycle model driven by nonstationary productivity shocks. We find that the RBC model does a poor job at explaining business cycles in emerging countries. We then...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466032
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Stochastic Technical Progress, Nearly Smooth Trends and Distinct Business Cycles
Rotemberg, Julio J. - 2002
This paper investigates whether it is possible to entertain simultaneously two attractive views about US GDP. The first is that long term growth in US GDP is attributable to an empirically plausible specification of random technical progress. The second is that deviations of GDP from a fitted...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469795
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Slow Recoveries
Bergoeing, Raphael - 2004
Economies respond differently to aggregate shocks that reduce output. While some countries rapidly recover their pre-crisis trend, others stagnate. Recent studies provide empirical support for a link between aggregate growth and plant dynamics through its effect on productivity: the entry and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468109
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Flexibility of Adjustment to Shocks : Economic Growth and Volatility of Middle-Income Countries Before and After the Global Financial Crisis of 2008
Aizenman, Joshua - 2017
The pronounced and persistent impact of the global financial crisis of 2008 motivates our empirical analysis of the role of institutions and macroeconomic fundamentals on countries' adjustment to shocks. Our empirical analysis shows that the associations of growth level, growth volatility,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455214
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Slow Recoveries : A Structural Interpretation
Galí, Jordi - 2012
An analysis of the performance of GDP, employment and other labor market variables following the troughs in postwar U.S. business cycles points to much slower recoveries in the three most recent episodes, but does not reveal any significant change over time in the relation between GDP and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460574
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Financial Frictions and Trade Dynamics
Bergin, Paul - 2018
This paper demonstrates theoretically that a financial shock can have very persistent effects on international trade … persistently slower growth rate in trade. We find conditions under which a transitory financial shock significantly reduces the … financial shock, and firm entry investment that requires traded goods. This mechanism provides an example of how firm dynamics …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453213
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Comovement in GDP Trends and Cycles Among Trading Partners
Blonigen, Bruce A. - 2012
It has long been recognized that business cycle comovement is greater between countries that trade intensively with one another. Surprisingly, no one has previously examined the relationship between trade intensity and comovement of shocks to the trend level of output. Contrary to the result for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460627
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Macroeconomic Conditions and the Puzzles of Credit Spreads and Capital Structure
Chen, Hui - 2010
I build a dynamic capital structure model that demonstrates how business-cycle variations in expected growth rates, economic uncertainty, and risk premia influence firms' financing and default policies. Countercyclical fluctuations in risk prices, default probabilities, and default losses arise...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462506
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Growth and Childbearing in the Short- and Long-Run
Chatterjee, Shoumitro - 2016
Despite being key to theories of economic growth and the demographic transition, evidence on how fertility responds to aggregate income change is mixed. We analyze economic growth and fertility change in the developing world over six decades, using data on 2.3 million women from 255 surveys in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455680
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Productivity and U.S. Macroeconomic Performance : Interpreting the Past and Predicting the Future with a Two-Sector Real Business Cycle Model
Ireland, Peter N. - 2007
A two-sector real business cycle model, estimated with postwar U.S. data, identifies shocks to the levels and growth rates of total factor productivity in distinct consumption- and investment-goods-producing technologies. This model attributes most of the productivity slowdown of the 1970s to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465114