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A long return history is useful in estimating the current equity premium even if the historical distribution has experienced structural breaks. The long series helps not only if the timing of breaks is uncertain but also if one believes that large shifts in the premium are unlikely or that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470972
This paper suggests that the relevant question concerning unit root' in the U.S. real GNP time series pertains to the relative importance of difference-stationary and trend-stationary components. Various analytical approaches indicate than an accurate answer is not obtainable with existing data....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474588
Mandelbrot's "range over standard deviation" or R/S statistic, for which the relevant asymptotic sampling theory is derived via … functional central limit theory. This test is applied to daily, weekly, monthly, and annual stock returns indexes over several …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476064
rapid. In addition, an economic theory of the speed of adjustment is presented and tested. The evidence suggests that … greater exchange rate flexibility has not significantly altered the reserve holding behavior of the world's central banks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478740
Measuring the integration of world capital markets is notoriously difficult. For example, regulatory changes which … equity market becomes financially integrated with world capital markets. We find endogenous break dates that are very … markets are on average larger and more liquid than before; returns are more volatile and more highly correlated with the world …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472089
Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset pricing theories. In response to this, a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472795
We study how international trade affects manufacturing employment and the relative wage of unskilled workers when goods and services are traded with different intensities. Manufacturing trade reduces manufacturing prices worldwide, which reduces manufacturing employment if manufactures and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455178
We study the distribution of economic activity, as proxied by lights at night, across 250,000 grid cells of average area 560 square kilometers. We first document that nearly half of the variation can be explained by a parsimonious set of physical geography attributes. A full set of country...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456530
This paper exploits a data rich environment to provide direct econometric estimates of time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty, defined as the common volatility in the unforecastable component of a large number of economic indicators. Our estimates display significant independent variations from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459206
Persistent differences in interest rates across countries account for much of the profitability of currency carry trade strategies. "Commodity currencies'' tend to have high interest rates while low interest rate currencies belong to exporters of finished goods. This pattern arises in a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459290