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Partial Default
Arellano, Cristina - 2019
initially increase and do not experience reductions upon resolution. This paper presents a theory of sovereign default that … replicates these properties, which are absent in standard sovereign default theory. Partial default is a flexible way to raise … as the defaulted debt accumulates and interest rate spreads increase. This theory is capable of rationalizing the large …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480023
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Adverse Selection Dynamics in Privately-Produced Safe Debt Markets
Foley-Fisher, Nathan - 2020
Privately-produced safe debt is designed so that there is no adverse selection in trade. This is because no agent finds it profitable to produce private information about the debt's backing and all agents know this (i.e., it is information-insensitive). But in some macro states, it becomes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482235
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Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows
Leeper, Eric M. - 2009
Fiscal foresight -- the phenomenon that legislative and implementation lags ensure that private agents receive clear signals about the tax rates they face in the future -- is intrinsic to the tax policy process. This paper develops an analytical framework to study the econometric implications of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463990
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Financial Policies and the Prevention of Financial Crises in Emerging Market Countries
Mishkin, Frederic S. - 2001
This paper outlines a set of financial policies that can help make financial crises less likely in emerging market countries. To justify these policies, the paper first explains what a financial crisis is, the factors that promote a financial crisis and the dynamics of a financial crisis. It...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470642
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The Integrated Financial and Real System of National Accounts for the United States : Does It Presage the Financial Crisis?
Palumbo, Michael G. - 2009
The initial implementation of the System of National Accounts (1993) for the United States by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federal Reserve Board has two significant advantages for economists. First, the SNA are organized according to sectors of the economy defined by economic agents:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463984
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A New Method of Estimating Potential Real GDP Growth : Implications for the Labor Market and the Debt/GDP Ratio
Gordon, Robert J. - 2014
Forecasts for the two or three years after mid-2014 have converged on growth rates of real GDP in the range of 3.0 to 3.5 percent, a major stepwise increase from realized growth of 2.1 percent between mid-2009 and mid-2014. However, these forecasts are based on the demand for goods and services....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458244
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Theoretical Notes on Bubbles and the Current Crisis
Martin, Alberto - 2010
We explore a view of the crisis as a shock to investor sentiment that led to the collapse of a bubble or pyramid scheme in financial markets. We embed this view in a standard model of the financial accelerator and explore its empirical and policy implications. In particular, we show how the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462257
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Over-optimistic Official Forecasts in the Eurozone and Fiscal Rules
Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2012
Why do countries find it so hard to get their budget deficits under control? Systematic patterns in the errors that official budget agencies make in their forecasts may play an important role. Although many observers have suggested that fiscal discipline can be restored via fiscal rules such as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460377
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Financial development and growth in the short and long run
Fisman, Raymond - 2004
"We analyze the relationship between financial development and inter-industry resource allocation in the short- and long-run. We suggest that in the long-run, economies with high rates of financial development will devote relatively more resources to industries with a 'natural' reliance on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010523015
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Robust-H-infinity Forecasting and Asset Pricing Anomalies
Tornell, Aaron - 2000
We present an alternative expectation formation mechanism that helps rationalize well known asset pricing anomalies, such as the predictability of excess returns, excess volatility, and the equity-premium puzzle. As with rational expectations (RE), the expectation formation mechanism we consider...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470997