We develop a tractable dynamic model of credit markets in which lending standards and the quality of potential … can amplify and prolong temporary downturns, affecting lending volume, credit spreads, and default rates. We characterize … constraints naturally incentivize tight lending standards, further amplifying shocks to credit markets …

. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or … years. This compares with a roughly 7% probability in normal times, when neither credit nor asset price growth has been … Kindleberger-Minsky view that crises are the byproduct of predictable, boom-bust credit cycles. The predictability we document …

being credit rationed, loan size, and the probability of bankruptcy using household-level data from the Japanese Panel … credit rationed and decreases loan size. Furthermore, we find that better judicial enforcement increases the probability of …