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Evolving Reputation for Commitment : The Rise, Fall and Stabilization of US Inflation
King, Robert G.; Lu, Yang - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
A parsimonious model of shifting policy regimes can simultaneously capture expected and actual US inflation during 1969-2005. Our model features a forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve and purposeful policymakers that can or cannot commit. Private sector learning about policymaker type...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013477255
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Probabilistic Prediction for Binary Treatment Choice : with Focus on Personalized Medicine
Manski, Charles F. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
This paper extends my research applying statistical decision theory to treatment choice with sample data, using maximum regret to evaluate the performance of treatment rules. The specific new contribution is to study as-if optimization using estimates of illness probabilities in clinical choice...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660036
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Monetary-Based Asset Pricing : A Mixed-Frequency Structural Approach
Bianchi, Francesco; Ludvigson, Sydney C.; Ma, Sai - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
We integrate a high-frequency monetary event study into a mixed-frequency macro-finance model and structural estimation …. The model and estimation allow for jumps at Fed announcements in investor beliefs, providing granular detail on why … financial market risk. However, the structural estimation also finds that much of the causal impact of monetary policy on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210100
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Has US Monetary Policy Changed? Evidence from Drifting Coefficients and Real-Time Data
Boivin, Jean - 2005
coefficients. The estimation is based on real-time data and accounts for the presence of heteroskedasticity in the policy shock …-sample estimation. In contrast to Orphanides (2002, 2003), I find that the Fed's response to the real-time forecast of inflation was …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467369
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Monetary Policy in Japan, Germany and the United States : Does One Size Fit All?
Chinn, Menzie D. - 1997
We study the post-war evidence for Japan to see if the same specification for both the economy and the monetary policy rule is useful for understanding Japan's economy and monetary policy. A recurrent theme in the literature on Japanese monetary policy is that there are significant differences...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472722
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The Social Value of Hurricane Forecasts
Molina, Renato; Rudik, Ivan - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
What is the impact and value of hurricane forecasts? We study this question using newly-collected forecast data for major US hurricanes since 2005. We find higher wind speed forecasts increase pre-landfall protective spending, but erroneous under-forecasts increase post-landfall damage and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576576
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The Long and Variable Lags of Monetary Policy : Evidence from Disaggregated Price Indices
Aruoba, S. Borağan; Drechsel, Thomas - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We study how monetary policy affects subcomponents of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI) using local projections. Following a monetary policy contraction, the response of aggregate PCEPI turns significantly negative after over three years. There are stark differences in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576652
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The Myth of Long-Horizon Predictability
Boudoukh, Jacob - 2005
The prevailing view in finance is that the evidence for long-horizon stock return predictability is significantly stronger than that for short horizons. We show that for persistent regressors, a characteristic of most of the predictive variables used in the literature, the estimators are almost...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466830
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Monetary Policy and Real Borrowing Costs at the Zero Lower Bound
Gilchrist, Simon - 2014
in Treasury yields to comparable-maturity private yields …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458571
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Contingent Credit Under Stress
Acharya, Viral V.; Jager, Maximilian; Steffen, Sascha - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
Over the past two decades, banks have increasingly focused on offering contingent credit in the form of credit lines as a primary means of corporate borrowing. We review the existing body of research regarding the rationales for banks' provision of liquidity insurance in the form of credit...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014437040