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need for policy coordination: the specific choice of monetary policy limits the set of fiscal policies consistent with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464256
This paper examines issues in the current debate over coordination between fiscal and monetary policies. Section I1 … uses the traditional targets-instruments approach to assess the potential gains from greater coordination. Since greater … coordination is often equated with looser money and tighter fiscal policy, two econometric models of the economy are used to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478123
In a very broad class of dynamic linear models, if agents possess knowledge of current endogenous variables in a least-squares learning process, determinacy of a rational expectations (RE) equilibrium is sufficient but not necessary for learnability of that equilibrium. Thus, since learnability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464483
Two laboratory experiments - one a statistical urn problem, the other a monetary policy experiment - were run to test the commonly-believed hypothesis that groups make decisions more slowly than individuals do. Surprisingly, this turns out not to be true there is no significant difference in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470828
It is common to analyze the effects of alternative monetary policy commitments under the assumption of fully model-consistent expectations. This implicitly assumes unrealistic cognitive abilities on the part of economic decision makers. The relevant question, however, is not whether the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453028
This paper extends my research applying statistical decision theory to treatment choice with sample data, using maximum … in indirect ways, the former applying classical statistical theory and the latter measuring prediction accuracy in test … samples. Neither approach is satisfactory. Statistical decision theory provides a coherent, generally applicable methodology …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660036
We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to compare point forecasts of GDP growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters. We find that SPF forecasters summarize their underlying distributions in different ways and that their summaries tend...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466693
We argue that comprehensive out-of-sample (OOS) evaluation using statistical decision theory (SDT) should replace the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512123
The factors leading individuals to immigrate to developed nations are widely studied, but comparatively less is known about those who emigrate from them. In this paper, we use data from a nationally representative cohort of Australian adults to develop longitudinal measures of emigration and to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456754
We show that the response of banks' net interest margin (NIM) to monetary policy shocks is state dependent. Following a period of low (high) Federal Funds rates, a contractionary monetary policy shock leads to an increase (decrease) in NIM. Aggregate economic activity exhibits a similar...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015326516