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At the onset of the COVID pandemic, the U.S. economy suddenly and swiftly lost 20 million jobs. Over the next two years, the economy has been on the recovery path. We assess the labor market two years into the COVID crisis. We show that early employment dynamics were almost entirely driven by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362041
We introduce dynamic incentive contracts into a model of unemployment dynamics and present three results. First, wage … cyclicality from incentives does not dampen unemployment dynamics: the response of unemployment to shocks is first … cyclicality from bargaining dampens unemployment dynamics through the standard mechanism. Third, our calibrated model suggests 46 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372479
, unemployment and inflation to aggregate shocks. The ratio between job-finding probabilities from job-to-job and from unemployment … the unemployment rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322853
Who is harmed by and who benefits from worker reallocation? We investigate the earnings consequences of changing jobs and find a wide dispersion in outcomes. This dispersion is driven not by whether the worker was displaced, but by the duration of joblessness between job spells. Job movers who...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012616634
Workers wrongly anchor their beliefs about outside options on their current wage. In particular, low-paid workers underestimate wages elsewhere. We document this anchoring bias by eliciting workers' beliefs in a representative survey in Germany and comparing them to measures of actual outside...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794650
This paper develops a framework for analyzing unemployment in terms of …distribution of the inflow Into unemployment are the primary determinant of …drive the recession. In contrast to normal unemployment, cyclical unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477074
direction and convexity of the age-unemployment relationship and the impact of experience on turnover and wages. Actions taken … when unemployed have an important impact on equilibrium turnover rates, unemployment rates, and the work history of the … pool of unemployed. The sorting model is used to analyze racial differences in youth unemployment and major empirical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478777
dynamics in the tradition of Mortensen and Pissarides (1994). Our estimates discern 5 distinct types. Most unemployment comes … from just two of those types. Low employment types frequently circle among unemployment, short-term jobs, and being out of … the labor market. Short-term jobs play a role in the job-finding process related to the role of unemployment. These are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479577
We develop a computable general equilibrium model of the United States economy to study the unemployment effects of … carbon tax on aggregate unemployment is small and similar across the two labor mobility assumptions (0.2-0.3 percentage … points). The effect on unemployment in fossil fuel sectors is much larger under the immobility assumption - a 30 percentage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479747
This chapter assesses how models with search frictions have shaped our understanding of aggregate labor market outcomes in two contexts: business cycle fluctuations and long-run (trend) changes. We first consolidate data on aggregate labor market outcomes for a large set of OECD countries. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462750