Showing 1 - 10 of 26
from the analysis. (i) Fiscal expansions led to higher growth rates and reduced negative trade-offs, e.g., pollution and … poor-health mortalities associated with economic growth. (ii) Fiscal adjustments led to a more inclusive economy, lowered … poverty headcounts, improved sanitation, and cleaner technology access. (iii) Fiscal expansions followed an increase in direct …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012510619
Domestic mobility restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 are widespread in developing countries, and have trapped millions of migrant workers in hotspot cities. We show that bans can increase cumulative infections relative to a counterfactual sans restrictions. A SEIR model shows bans'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012510577
We study whether student-advisor gender and race composition matters for publication productivity of Ph.D. students in South Africa. We consider all Ph.D. students in STEM graduating between 2000 and 2014, after the recent systematic introduction of doctoral programs in this country. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322734
Between 1967 and 1974, a bilateral treaty increased circular labor migration from Malawi to South Africa by 200%, bringing over 53 million USD in earnings into origin communities. A deadly migrant worker plane crash in 1974 ended these flows and led to migrant repatriation. We study how this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486235
We theoretically characterize the behavior of machine learning asset pricing models. We prove that expected out-of-sample model performance--in terms of SDF Sharpe ratio and test asset pricing errors--is improving in model parameterization (or "complexity"). Our empirical findings verify the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372446
language processing and generative statistical modeling to create a factor structure of unstructured data for downstream … relatively interpretable spanning clusters (i.e., textual factors) through topic modeling. Our data-driven approach captures …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015145119
Endogeneity is a primary concern when evaluating causal effects using observational panel data. While unit-specific intercepts control for unobserved time-invariant confounders, dependence between (i) regressors (e.g., marketing mix strategy of interests) and the current error term (regressor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015171668
We propose a statistical model of differences in beliefs in which heterogeneous investors are represented as different machine learning model specifications. Each investor forms return forecasts from their own specific model using data inputs that are available to all investors. We measure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337816
VARs are often estimated with Bayesian techniques to cope with model dimensionality. The posterior means define a class of shrinkage estimators, indexed by hyperparameters that determine the relative weight on maximum likelihood estimates and prior means. In a Bayesian setting, it is natural to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015326468
Fiscal policy in the U.S. and other countries renders intertemporal budgets non-differentiable, nonconvex, and discontinuous. Consequently, assessing work and saving responses to policy requires global optimization. This paper develops the Global Life-Cycle Optimizer (GLO), a stochastic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014528375