Similar Search Results

Large Fiscal Episodes and Sustainable Development : Some International Evidence

Aizenman, Joshua; Jinjarak, Yothin; Nguyen, Hien Thi Kim; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

from the analysis. (i) Fiscal expansions led to higher growth rates and reduced negative trade-offs, e.g., pollution and … poor-health mortalities associated with economic growth. (ii) Fiscal adjustments led to a more inclusive economy, lowered … poverty headcounts, improved sanitation, and cleaner technology access. (iii) Fiscal expansions followed an increase in direct …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012510619

The Impact of Domestic Travel Bans on COVID-19 is Nonlinear in Their Duration

Burlig, Fiona; Sudarshan, Anant; Schlauch, Garrison - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

Domestic mobility restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 are widespread in developing countries, and have trapped millions of migrant workers in hotspot cities. We show that bans can increase cumulative infections relative to a counterfactual sans restrictions. A SEIR model shows bans'...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012510577

Labor Migration, Capital Accumulation, and the Structure of Rural Labor Markets

Dinkelman, Taryn; Kumchulesi, Grace; Mariotti, Martine - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

Between 1967 and 1974, a bilateral treaty increased circular labor migration from Malawi to South Africa by 200%, bringing over 53 million USD in earnings into origin communities. A deadly migrant worker plane crash in 1974 ended these flows and led to migrant repatriation. We study how this...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486235

Ph.D. Publication Productivity : The Role of Gender and Race in Supervision in South Africa

Rossello, Giulia; Cowan, Robin A.; Mairesse, Jacques - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We study whether student-advisor gender and race composition matters for publication productivity of Ph.D. students in South Africa. We consider all Ph.D. students in STEM graduating between 2000 and 2014, after the recent systematic introduction of doctoral programs in this country. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322734

Machine Forecast Disagreement

Bali, Turan G.; Kelly, Bryan T.; Mörke, Mathis; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We propose a statistical model of differences in beliefs in which heterogeneous investors are represented as different machine learning model specifications. Each investor forms return forecasts from their own specific model using data inputs that are available to all investors. We measure...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337816

Complexity in Factor Pricing Models

Didisheim, Antoine; Ke, Shikun; Kelly, Bryan T.; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We theoretically characterize the behavior of machine learning asset pricing models. We prove that expected out-of-sample model performance--in terms of SDF Sharpe ratio and test asset pricing errors--is improving in model parameterization (or "complexity"). Our empirical findings verify the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372446

Analyzing Bounded Count Data

Mullahy, John - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

outcomes are of interest, and on econometric modeling of their probability and moment structures. Hopefully the paper will …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014421240

The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Algorithms

Ludwig, Jens; Mullainathan, Sendhil; Rambachan, Ashesh - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We calculate the social return on algorithmic interventions (specifically their Marginal Value of Public Funds) across multiple domains of interest to economists--regulation, criminal justice, medicine, and education. Though these algorithms are different, the results are similar and striking....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486217

Principal Component Analysis for Nonstationary Series

Hamilton, James D.; Xi, Jin - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

This paper develops a procedure for uncovering the common cyclical factors that drive a mix of stationary and nonstationary variables. The method does not require knowing which variables are nonstationary or the nature of the nonstationarity. An application to the FRED-MD macroeconomic dataset...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468268

Putting Quantitative Models to the Test : An Application to Trump's Trade War

Adão, Rodrigo; Costinot, Arnaud; Donaldson, Dave - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

The primary motivation behind quantitative modeling in international trade and many other fields is to shed light on …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322709