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The Statistical Analysis of Local Structure in Social Networks
Holland, Paul W. - 1974
We introduce the concept of a triad census of a digraph arid show how it can be used to enumerate various types of subgraph configurations. We give the basic probabilities needed for computing means and variances for a triad census under the U-MAN distribution for digraphs. These concepts are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479082
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Comprehensive OOS Evaluation of Predictive Algorithms with Statistical Decision Theory
Dominitz, Jeff; Manski, Charles F. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We argue that comprehensive out-of-sample (OOS) evaluation using statistical decision theory (SDT) should replace the current practice of K-fold and Common Task Framework validation in machine learning (ML) research. SDT provides a formal framework for performing comprehensive OOS evaluation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512123
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The Equity Premium and Structural Breaks
Pastor, Lubos - 2000
A long return history is useful in estimating the current equity premium even if the historical distribution has experienced structural breaks. The long series helps not only if the timing of breaks is uncertain but also if one believes that large shifts in the premium are unlikely or that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470972
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Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Time Series : Some Critical Issues
McCallum, Bennett T. - 1993
This paper suggests that the relevant question concerning unit root' in the U.S. real GNP time series pertains to the relative importance of difference-stationary and trend-stationary components. Various analytical approaches indicate than an accurate answer is not obtainable with existing data....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474588
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Long-term Memory in Stock Market Prices
Lo, Andrew W. - 1989
A test for long-run memory that is robust to short-range dependence is developed. It is a simple extension of Mandelbrot's "range over standard deviation" or R/S statistic, for which the relevant asymptotic sampling theory is derived via functional central limit theory. This test is applied to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476064
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The Value of Statistical Life : A Meta-analysis of Meta-analyses
Banzhaf, H. Spencer - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
The Value of Statistical Life (VSL) is arguably the most important number in benefit-cost analyses of environmental, health, and transportation policies. However, agencies have used a wide range of VSL values. One reason may be the embarrassment of riches when it comes to VSL studies. While...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012616632
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Improving the Accuracy of Economic Measurement with Multiple Data Sources : The Case of Payroll Employment Data
Cajner, Tomaz - 2019
-time measurement of the labor market. The sources are the Current Employment Statistics (CES) from BLS and microdata from the payroll …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479981
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Eliminating the Pass-Through : Towards FDI Statistics that Better Capture the Financial and Economic Linkages between Countries
Borga, Maria - 2018
FDI plays a central role in managing global production networks, but FDI statistics also reflect other factors … developing a framework for consolidated FDI statistics based on the nationality of the MNE group that complements residency …-based FDI statistics. While residency-based statistics are useful to identify where financial claims and liabilities are held …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480682
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Statistical Decision Properties of Imprecise Trials Assessing COVID-19 Drugs
Manski, Charles F. - 2020
As the COVID-19 pandemic progresses, researchers are reporting findings of randomized trials comparing standard care with care augmented by experimental drugs. The trials have small sample sizes, so estimates of treatment effects are imprecise. Seeing imprecision, clinicians reading research...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481487
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Risk-Adjusted Gamma Discounting
Weitzman, Martin L. - 2009
It is widely recognized that the economics of distant-future events, like climate change, is critically dependent upon the choice of a discount rate. Unfortunately, it is unclear how to discount distant-future events when the future discount rate itself is unknown. In previous work, an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463061