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Credit Risk and Disaster Risk
Gourio, Francois - 2011
Corporate credit spreads are large, volatile, countercyclical, and significantly larger than expected losses, but existing macroeconomic models with financial frictions fail to reproduce these patterns, because they imply small and constant aggregate risk premia. Building on the idea that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461632
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Credit Spreads as Predictors of Real-Time Economic Activity : A Bayesian Model-Averaging Approach
Faust, Jon - 2011
Employing a large number of real and financial indicators, we use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to forecast real-time measures of economic activity. Importantly, the predictor set includes option-adjusted credit spread indexes based on bond portfolios sorted by maturity and credit risk as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461932
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Banks and Derivatives
Gorton, Gary - 1995
interest-rate sensitivities of interest rate swap positions of U.S. commercial banks to empirically address the question of … whether swap contracts have increased or decreased systematic risk in the U.S. banking system. We find that the banking system … as a whole faces little net interest-rate risk from swap portfolios …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473787
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Over-the-Counter Derivatives and Systemic Risk to the Global Financial System
Darby, Michael R. - 1994
Over the last decade dealing in derivative financial instruments (basically forwards, futures, options and combinations of these), particularly in the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market has become a central activity for major wholesale banks and financial institutions. Measured in terms...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474119
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An Evaluation of Multi-Factor CIR Models Using LIBOR, Swap Rates, and Cap and Swaption Prices
Jagannathan, Ravi - 2001
We evaluate the classical Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (1985) (CIR) model using data on LIBOR, swap rates and caps and … swaptions. With three factors the CIR model is able to fit the term structure of LIBOR and swap rates rather well. The model is … able to match the hump shaped unconditional term structure of volatility in the LIBOR-swap market. However, statistical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470033
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Simple Variance Swaps
Martin, Ian - 2011
the single-name variance swap market to dry up completely. This paper defines and analyzes a simple variance swap, a … relative of the variance swap that in several respects has more desirable properties. First, simple variance swaps are robust …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461773
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On the Source and Instability of Probability Weighting
Frydman, Cary; Jin, Lawrence J. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We propose and experimentally test a new theory of probability distortions in risky choice. The theory is based on a core principle from neuroscience called efficient coding, which states that information is encoded more accurately for those stimuli that the agent expects to encounter more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337806
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How People Use Statistics
Bordalo, Pedro; Conlon, John; Gennaioli, Nicola; Kwon, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We document two new facts about the distributions of answers in famous statistical problems: they are i) multi-modal and ii) unstable with respect to irrelevant changes in the problem. We offer a model in which, when solving a problem, people represent each hypothesis by attending "bottom up" to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337863
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Evaluation of Subjective Probability Distributions in the HRS
Hurd, Michael D. - 1993
In the Health and Retirement Survey respondents were asked about the chances they would live to 75 or to 85, and the chances they would work after age 62 or 65. We analyze the responses to determine if they behave like probabilities, if their averages are close to average probabilities in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474380
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The "Gambler's Fallacy" in Lottery Play
Clotfelter, Charles T. - 1991
The -gambler's fallacy- is the belief that the probability of an event is lowered when that event has recently occurred, even though the probability of the event is objectively known to be independent from one trial to the next. This paper provides evidence on the time pattern of lottery...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475231