inflation uncertainty strongly predicts a more hawkish policy stance that is not explained either by the Fed's macroeconomic … forecasts or by public uncertainty proxies. We rationalize these results with a model of inflation tail risks and argue that the … effect of uncertainty on the FOMC's decisions reflects policymakers' concern with maintaining credibility for the inflation …

This paper assesses the proximate causes of the post pandemic surge in US inflation, the Federal Reserve's real time …

economic growth. This paper examines the roles of three other factors: primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged … inflation and the pre-Accord peg. In this counterfactual, debt/GDP declines only to 74% in 1974, not 23% as in actual history …

To what extent is the recent spike in inflation driven by a change in its permanent component? We estimate a semi …-structural model of output, inflation, and the nominal interest rate in the United States over the period 1900-2021. The model predicts … that between 2019 and 2021 the permanent component of inflation rose by 51 basis points. If instead we estimate the model …

in inflation. Coincident with these trends has been a surge in U.S. wealth inequality, with the Gini coefficient up by 0 …, this paper differs from previous work by focusing on only the direct effects of interest rate changes and inflation on the …

-war announcements caused large declines in U.S. stock prices, expected TFP, and expected inflation largely by moving macro variables …

for inflation dynamics …

The rise, fall, and stabilization of US inflation between 1969 and 2005 is consistent with a model of shifting policy … sector learning about policymaker type. Using model-implied inflation forecasting rules to extract state variables from the … inflation forecasts in the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we provide evidence that policy regimes without commitment …

As the pandemic spread across the U.S., disagreement among U.S. households about inflation expectations surged along … with the mean perceived and expected level of inflation. Simultaneously, the inflation experienced by households became … between the inflation experienced by households in their daily shopping and their perceived and expected levels of inflation …

We study how the recent run-up in housing and rental prices affects the outlook for inflation in the United States …. Housing held down overall inflation in 2021. Despite record growth in private market-based measures of home prices and rents …, government measured residential services inflation was only four percent for the twelve months ending in January 2022. After …