This paper assesses the proximate causes of the post pandemic surge in US inflation, the Federal Reserve's real time …

inflation uncertainty strongly predicts a more hawkish policy stance that is not explained either by the Fed's macroeconomic … forecasts or by public uncertainty proxies. We rationalize these results with a model of inflation tail risks and argue that the … effect of uncertainty on the FOMC's decisions reflects policymakers' concern with maintaining credibility for the inflation …

, as unemployment fell below 6% (in 1994), then below 5% (in 1997), and then remained below 5% for more than four years …

. Deflation subsided by 2005. As soon as inflation appeared to stabilize near a rate of zero, the Bank of Japan rapidly reduced …

solutions such as the conservative central banker and optimal inflation contracts. Our theoretical model also shows how an … inflation targeting range should be set and how it should respond to changes in the nature of shocks to the economy …

labor markets employment and output are decreasing and inflation is initially increasing and then decreasing in the degree … of central bank conservatism. A radical-populist central banker who cares not at all about inflation (alternatively, who …

As central bankers intensify their focus on inflation as the primary goal of monetary policy, it becomes increasingly … important to have accurate and reliable measures of changes in the aggregate price level. Measuring inflation is surprisingly … transitory noise and bias. Noise causes short-run changes in measured inflation to inaccurately reflect movements in long …

A new measure of credibility is constructed as a function of the differential between observed inflation and some … estimate of the inflation rate that the central bank targets. The target is assumed to be met flexibly. Credibility is …-2008 financial crisis. The VIX, adopting an inflation target and central bank transparency, are the most reliable determinants of …

We present a simple long-run aggregate demand and supply framework for evaluating long-run inflation. The framework …-run inflation as well as transitions between steady states. We use the analysis to provide a fresh perspective on the forces that … drove global inflation downward over the past four decades. We argue that for inflation to remain low and stable in the …