inflation uncertainty strongly predicts a more hawkish policy stance that is not explained either by the Fed's macroeconomic … forecasts or by public uncertainty proxies. We rationalize these results with a model of inflation tail risks and argue that the … effect of uncertainty on the FOMC's decisions reflects policymakers' concern with maintaining credibility for the inflation …

inflation and persistence in output. The key features of our model are those that prevent a sharp rise in marginal costs after …

inflation (with base drift in the price level) and price-level stability (without such base drift) are compared, and a suitable … loss function (corresponding to flexible inflation targeting) is discussed, including the index and level for the inflation … price stability. The benefits of credibility (private inflation expectations coinciding with the inflation target) are …

monetary policymaking. First, we discuss why trimmed means provide the best measure of core inflation. Second, we outline how … rigidities impede policymakers' ability to control inflation. And third, we describe how alternative shock/rigidity combinations … create inflation's grease (whereby it improves economic efficiency by speeding adjustment) and sand effects (whereby it …

inflation expectations. We develop this measure using assumptions common in economic analysis of open economies. Using quarterly …

labor markets employment and output are decreasing and inflation is initially increasing and then decreasing in the degree … of central bank conservatism. A radical-populist central banker who cares not at all about inflation (alternatively, who …

This paper shows that it is possible to analyze equilibrium inflation determination without any reference to either … become negligible. Inflation in the cashless limit is shown to be a function of the gap between the natural rate' of interest …-rate rule indicating the tightness of monetary policy. Inflation can be completely stabilized, in principle, by adjusting the …

Proposals for 'inflation targeting' as a strategy for monetary policy leave open the important operational question of … how to determine whether current policies are consistent with the long-run inflation target. An interesting possibility is … that the central bank might target current private-sector forecasts of inflation, either those made explicitly by …

Previous analysis of the implementation of inflation targeting is extended to monetary policy responses to different … stabilization or smoothing all call for a more gradual adjustment of the conditional inflation forecast toward the inflation target …. The conditional inflation forecast is the natural intermediate target during inflation targeting …