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This paper develops a decision-theoretic approach to policy analysis. We argue that policy evaluation should be conducted on the basis of two factors: the policymaker's preferences, and the conditional distribution of the outcomes of interest given a policy and available information. From this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468673
This paper, written for the NBER Conference on the Changing Role of the United States in the World Economy, covers the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476859
Many of the crucial debates in development economics are encapsulated in the question of economic convergence. Is there a tendency for the poorer countries to grow more rapidly than the richer countries, and thereby to converge in living standards? Some recent research on endogenous growth has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473854
In this paper we analyze empirically the most important implications of two family political economy models of inflation: the "myopic? government approach and the "weak" government approach. In myopic government models inflation is the deliberate outcome of politicians strategic behavior, while...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475286
actual evolution of the world economy over the 1974-87 period. Our findings suggest that simple mechanistic rule …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476394
Analysis based on a new measure of financial distress for 24 advanced economies in the postwar period shows substantial variation in the aftermath of financial crises. This paper examines the role that macroeconomic policy plays in explaining this variation. We find that the degree of monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453783
We consider a tractable model of heterogeneous production units that features endogenous entry and productivity investment to assess the quantitative impact of policy distortions on aggregate output and establishment size. Relative to the standard factor misallocation framework, policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455871
We live in a new world economy characterized by financial globalization and historically low interest rates. This … propagated abroad. In previous work, we built on the theory of rational bubbles to develop a framework to think about the origins … in this world. The interest-rate and terms-of-trade spillovers produce policy externalities that make the noncooperative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457733
I discuss the role of economic theory in empirical work in development economics with special emphasis on general … equilibrium and political economy considerations. I argue that economic theory plays (should play) a central role in formulating …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462707
policy changes that are precisely what macroeconomic theory of the last 30 years suggests. The three key developments that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466188