Recently there has been a great deal of interest in studying monetary policy under model uncertainty. We point out that different assumptions about the uncertainty may result in drastically different robust' policy recommendations. Therefore, we develop new methods to analyze uncertainty about...

This paper provides two alternative estimation and testing procedures of a representative-agent model of asset pricing which relies on a particular parametrization of non-expected-utility preferences. The first is based on maximum-likelihood estimates, supplemented with an explicit model of time...

Error-correction models for cointegrated economic variables are commonly interpreted as reflecting partial adjustment of one variable to another. We show that error-correction models may also arise because one variable forecasts another. Reduced-form estimates of error-correction models cannot...

Many questions in economics involve long-run or trend variation and covariation in time series. Yet, time series of typical lengths contain only limited information about this long-run variation. This paper suggests that long-run sample information can be isolated using a small number of...

In conducting empirical investigations of the permanent income model of consumption and the consumption-based intertemporal asset pricing model, various authors have imposed restrictions on the nature of the substitutability of consumption across goods and over time. In this paper we suggest a...

This paper examines the time series properties of the price of a risky asset implied by a model in which competitive traders are heterogeneously informed about the underlying sources of uncertainty in the economy.Traders do not observe the shocks in the period they occur. However, traders are...

A decentralized market theory of investment based on rising supply price is formulated and explained. Asset prices embody all available information in a competitive market and serve as "sufficient statistics" for future market conditions. Construction is determined myopically by marginal cost...

A number of recent studies have attempted to test propositions concerning "long runt" economic relationships by means of frequency-domain time series techniques that concentrate attention on low frequency co-movements of variables.The present paper emphasizes that many of these propositions...

In some applications of the distributed lag model, theory requires that all lag coefficients have a positive sign. A distributed lag estimator which provides estimated coefficients with positive sign is developed here which is analogous to an earlier distributed lag estimator derived from...

The paper explains how the Almon polynominal lag specification can be made stochastic in two different ways - one suggested by Shiller and another following the lines of Lindley and Smith. It is shown that both the estimators can be considered as modified ridge estimators. The paper then...